The incredible tripling religion (was: The incredible shrinking religion)

Allahu Abha!

Steve Marshall wrote:

> Hi Errol, me old team-mate :-)
>
> >In the 1991 census there
> >were 300 registered bahais and 13 LSA's in the whole state of Northern
> >Ireland. (Population 1.7 million).  In the 2001 census there were only
> >250 bahais and today there are just 8 LSA's in the whole state.
>
> Similarly, in New Zealand, there is a regular official count of the
> population and dwellings in New Zealand <http://www.stats.govt.nz/>.
> "The information gathered by the census provides a 'snapshot' of how
> many people live in New Zealand and the number of dwellings there are
> in the country, as well as providing a range of other useful
> information." The last census was held on March 6, 2001.
>
> The Baha'is lost ground this time around;
>
> Religious Affiliation (Total Responses) and Sex
>                         Census Year
>                         1991            1996            2001
> Baha'i
>         Male            1,368           1,497           1,413
>         Female          1,497           1,614           1,575
>         Total           2,865           3,111           2,988
>
> http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/htmldocs/2001+Census+of+Population+and+Dwellings+-+Cultural+diversity+tables
>
> Or, for a detailed table in Microsoft Excel 97 format:
>
> http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/874ea91c142289384c2567a80081308e/8bd18c52aa2f82b2cc256b6e00053a3b/$FILE/Table%2012.xls
>

This looks credible to me, rather than incredible.

>
> NZ's population went from 3.47 million at the time of the March 1991
> census to 3.85 million at the time of the March 2001 census. The
> closest actual population figures I have are for 31 December 1991
> (3,498,100) and 31 December 2000 (3843,200).
> http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/092edeb76ed5aa6bcc256afe0081d84e/8da4c5a99860a261cc256b220006196e?OpenDocument
>
> Taking into account the growth of the New Zealand population over the
> last decade, the proportion of Baha'is in the general population has
> been falling for about a decade.
>
> As I indicated, the figures above relate to the *self-declared*
> religious affiliation of New Zealanders. Thus, the figures can
> usefully be compared with the number of adherents *claimed* by
> religious organisations. I don't know what numbers the New Zealand NSA
> claims, but I seem to recall a request from the NSA that all Baha'is
> write "Baha'i Faith" on the census form so that the Faith would reach
> the threshold of .1% of the poulation, resulting in it being listed
> more prominently. The census results for "Baha'i" needed to shoot up
> to about 3900 in 2001 for that result to be achieved, and I think that
> the NZ NSA does claim about 4000 Baha'is on the
> books.

(snip)

With the larger, more recognized groups there is a lot to be said for the 
'self-declared' approach.  With smaller groups, it is quite possible for
the counters to fail to identify some of the responses as bona fide religious 
communities.  For example, the recent college graduate counting the New
Zealand returns may not recognize "Santeria" as a valid response.  Maybe the second 
time they see "Santeria", the recognize a faint pattern, but at
that point half of the "Santeria" individuals may have already gone by when they start 
counting "Santeria" as a bona fied religious community.

In the early 1990s, there was an effort to use self identification to survey adult 
Americans.  This survey implied there were about 28,000 adult
Baha'is.  Some of the folks at the US BNC thought there was an undercount of Baha'is.  
In the past few years, the survey was repeated, but on a
smaller scale.  This time, about ten years later, the self-identification survey 
showed about 84,000 adult Baha'is.

http://www.gc.cuny.edu/studies/images/image004.gif

I don't believe that the number of adult Americans who self-identify as Baha'i, 
tripled during the nineteen-nineties, even though that is exactly
what the data shows.  I believe there were small counting errors which had a 
significant impact on a religious community which was not widely known.

Best wishes!
- Pat
kohli at ameritel.net