The incredible shrinking religion

Hi Errol, me old team-mate :-)

>In the 1991 census there
>were 300 registered bahais and 13 LSA's in the whole state of Northern
>Ireland. (Population 1.7 million).  In the 2001 census there were only
>250 bahais and today there are just 8 LSA's in the whole state.

Similarly, in New Zealand, there is a regular official count of the
population and dwellings in New Zealand <http://www.stats.govt.nz/>.
"The information gathered by the census provides a 'snapshot' of how
many people live in New Zealand and the number of dwellings there are
in the country, as well as providing a range of other useful
information." The last census was held on March 6, 2001.

The Baha'is lost ground this time around;

Religious Affiliation (Total Responses) and Sex
                        Census Year             
                        1991            1996            2001
Baha'i                  
        Male            1,368           1,497           1,413
        Female          1,497           1,614           1,575
        Total           2,865           3,111           2,988

http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/htmldocs/2001+Census+of+Population+and+Dwellings+-+Cultural+diversity+tables

Or, for a detailed table in Microsoft Excel 97 format:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/874ea91c142289384c2567a80081308e/8bd18c52aa2f82b2cc256b6e00053a3b/$FILE/Table%2012.xls

NZ's population went from 3.47 million at the time of the March 1991
census to 3.85 million at the time of the March 2001 census. The
closest actual population figures I have are for 31 December 1991
(3,498,100) and 31 December 2000 (3843,200). 
http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/web/prod_serv.nsf/092edeb76ed5aa6bcc256afe0081d84e/8da4c5a99860a261cc256b220006196e?OpenDocument

Taking into account the growth of the New Zealand population over the
last decade, the proportion of Baha'is in the general population has
been falling for about a decade.

As I indicated, the figures above relate to the *self-declared*
religious affiliation of New Zealanders. Thus, the figures can
usefully be compared with the number of adherents *claimed* by
religious organisations. I don't know what numbers the New Zealand NSA
claims, but I seem to recall a request from the NSA that all Baha'is
write "Baha'i Faith" on the census form so that the Faith would reach
the threshold of .1% of the poulation, resulting in it being listed
more prominently. The census results for "Baha'i" needed to shoot up
to about 3900 in 2001 for that result to be achieved, and I think that
the NZ NSA does claim about 4000 Baha'is on the 
books.

Inflated membership rolls are fairly common within religions. That's
why census data and scientifically rigorous surveys of self-declared
religious affiliation are so useful. The numbers are generated by the
adherents themselves, rather than by the leaders of religion.

ka kite
Steve
(Who doesn't wish to be blamed for the sorry state of Baha'i affairs
in God's Own Country).