ANALYSIS: RUSSIA AND KYOTO: HIDDEN MOTIVES

First, why Russia's apparent rejection of Kyoto makes not sense,
second, a
hint of the possible real motives.

1)  The protocol's supporters question Mr Illarionov's view that
ratifying Kyoto would harm Russia's economic prospects.

Each country's emission reduction targets were set in 1990, when the
Soviet Union's heavy industries were still pumping out huge amounts of
pollution.

Russia (and most of the states of the former Soviet bloc) cannot now
afford either the industries, or even the fuel that drove them.

So Moscow has the notional right, under the protocol, to emit vast
quantities of "paper" pollution which will never leave a factory
chimney.

What it can do is sell its unused emission entitlements to
industrialised countries which are close to exceeding their own
allowances, and this could be a very lucrative trade.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3256604.stm

2) Why then the apparent rejection? Here's a little fact
that is seldom mentioned in news reports:

"Supporters of the troubled Kyoto Protocol will be looking keenly for
any sign from Russia that it will end its hesitation waltz and finally
ratify the deal, providing the push that will transform it into an
international treaty.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has been sending out mixed signals
for months.

"On one side, Moscow has said it will "closely examine" ratification
while on the other, according to diplomats, it has told the European
Union (EU) it wants to link ratification to its bid to join the World
Trade Organisation (WTO)"

http://www.terradaily.com/2003/031130030220.uq1nxa8t.html

But who has the most control over the WTO? Why, Washington. The
the currenct resident in Washington, Bush, strongly wants
to avoid Russia joining Kyoto, which would have put further
pressure on Bush to join Kyoto, particularly since
it would not only add a significant country, but would put
Kyoto into legal force (by bringing the total to 55% of
the world's emissions, as required by Kyoto).

So, the motive and the oppostunity are both there for
a Bush sabotage of Russia's joining WTO-and-Kyoto-both...

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