Re: Inside story of how Washington is losing its bottle

This shows that not all people have intelligence.



"Abu-Alwafa" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Inside story of how Washington is losing its bottle
>
> uploaded 01 Dec 2003
>
> Andrew Neil
>
> IN NEW York the mood is buoyant as the American economy continues to purr
at
> a satisfying rate, but 250 miles to the south in Washington DC there is
> increasing private gloom among those in the know that events in
Afghanistan
> and Iraq are going badly wrong - and growing despair about what to do
about
> it.
>
> President Bush's bold Thanksgiving trip to Baghdad gave US troops a
> much-needed fillip and he said all the right things. But behind the scenes
> the war on terror is going badly wrong in its two main theatres. "In both
> places it is worse than you think," I was warned before arriving in the US
> capital for a series of off-the-record briefings. The warning was
accurate.
>
> Take Afghanistan first. You don't read or see much about it these days.
The
> reality is grim. The Taliban is resurgent; al-Qaeda is there too, but not
as
> relevant as it was. Attacks on aid workers are soaring; many are refusing
to
> leave the urban areas. The warlords are back in control of the
countryside,
> where opium production is already above pre-invasion levels. "Afghanistan
is
> a narco-economy once more," said one intelligence analyst.
>
> The Taliban regularly mounts attacks in the rural areas and is expected to
> hit urban centres with greater force. "If they knew how weak we were,"
> confided one intelligence source, "they would have done it already."
> Coalition forces are confined to Vietnam-style strategic hamlets from
which
> they emerge for operations only in great force, before returning to their
> enclaves. Hamid Karzai's grip on power is tenuous..
>
> 'There are now an average of 130 attacks a day on coalition forces'
>
> Last week the Los Angeles Times reported on its front page that loads of
> recruits are quitting the fledgling Afghan army because of pitiful pay.
The
> US won't provide figures, but an Afghan officer said: "We have roughly
6,000
> trained soldiers, out of whom no less than 2,000 have left." The US says
it
> plans to have 70,000 soldiers in the force; nobody has any idea from
whence
> they will come.
>
> Yet despite the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, a huge amount of
US
> military assets have been shifted to Iraq. The Germans now make up the
> biggest part of the coalition forces along with various other European
> contingents. Washington fears they will not stay for long when casualties
> start to mount. "The prognosis for Afghanistan is miserable," was how one
US
> intelligence source concluded his briefing.
>
> It is not much better for Iraq. There are now an average of 130 attacks a
> day on coalition (mainly American) forces; almost 100 coalition troops
have
> been killed in November, the grimmest month so far. "We only have a third
of
> the forces we need to fight the insurgents," one former US diplomat told
me.
> The intelligence is threadbare too: US commanders have no real idea who
they
> are up against, except that they are well-organised remnants of Saddam's
Ba'
> athist regime, supplemented with some al-Qaeda-type Islamo-fascists. "We
> still don't really know who is behind the attacks," I was told. "So we
just
> go around kicking doors in - which is exactly what the enemy wants us to
> do."
>
> The US forces might lack purpose or direction but there are plenty of both
> to the insurgents' attacks. The UN was specifically targeted; it is now
> effectively gone from Iraq. Next were the various non-government
> organisations trying to assist in building a better Iraq; they, including
> the Red Cross, have also headed for the exit. Then it was the turn of what
> few allies America has in Iraq, specifically the Italians. Those most at
> risk now are Iraqis co-operating with the US. Last week a US commander
> reported a slackening of attacks on his own troops because the insurgents
> were concentrating on assassinating those they see as quislings.
>
> Now it is the Americans themselves who seem to be in a rush for the exit.
On
> September 22 Condoleezza Rice, the president's national security adviser,
> attacked France for suggesting a speedier transfer of power to Iraqis. Yet
> since President Bush summoned Paul Bremer, his Iraqi governor general, to
> the White House, that is exactly what is happening. Bush wants a
substantial
> withdrawal of US forces before next November's elections. Former Pentagon
> favourite, Ahmad Chalabi, is dismayed: "The whole thing [the speedier
> transfer of power] was set up so President Bush could come to the airport
in
> October [2004] for a ceremony to congratulate the new Iraqi government."
>
> The consequences on the ground are apparent. Until recently, US forces
took
> 12 weeks to train Iraqis for the new police force; that has been speeded
up
> to one week. No proper checks on individuals are being done, so trainees
> have been infiltrated with insurgent spies. US intelligence officers were
> horrified to discover recently that the insurgents even had details of
> Bremer's schedule.
>
> Bush is fond of saying that America did not spend so much in men and
> materiel to liberate 25 million Iraqis only to succumb to a ragbag of
> insurgents. Yet it looks as if that is exactly what is happening. The
> insurgents have noted that a few very big bombs have already forced
> Washington to speed up its exit strategy; that can only result in even
> bigger bombs.
>
> No wonder the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration are in retreat:
> their policy of replacing Middle East tyrants with democracy and
functioning
> economies is in grave danger of falling at the first hurdle, largely from
> lack if American willpower. The consequences of defeat and retreat, of
> course, are so grave that I cannot believe any US president can
contemplate
> it for long; but what exactly Bush plans to do about it is a mystery which
> nobody I met in Washington was able to resolve.
>
> Source:  Scotsman
>
>
>
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