Those Nice, Nuke-Pursuing Iranians

The Europeans want to get tough, and scold them.  The US has agreed
with this.

(Is it because Iranian nuclear missiles would threaten Europe before
they would threaten the USA, or because the USA remains the only
nation able to respond to any future crisis, for which the Europeans
will criticize us, and we currently are occupied in Iraq?)

That'll make the Iranians reform, all right!

Don't be surprised if Israel does what the West has failed to do.

...

[Christian Science Monitor]

Israel: Iran is now danger No. 1

US, Britain, France, and Germany threatened Iran on Monday with
sanctions over its nuclear program.

by Nicole Gaouette 


Even as the US and European nations press Iran harder to comply with
international law on its nuclear program, Israel is moving ahead with
its own program to check its powerful Middle Eastern neighbor.

Israel is working on a wide range of measures to undermine Iran's
nuclear program, with senior leaders hinting that Israel may take
preemptive action if that is deemed necessary. Analysts here suggest
that action may include a strike similar to Israel's 1981 attack on
Iraq's Osirak reactor.

The Israeli initiative includes political, military, and intelligence
wings of government and dovetails with US efforts to contain Iran
within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The effort reflects the widespread assessment here that Iran poses a
greater threat than Iraq has for the past decade and is gaining
nuclear expertise more quickly than the US estimates.

"Iran has a clandestine [nuclear] program that is very ambitious,"
says Uzi Arad, director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy in
Herzilya. "That country thinks big and fast and ... poses a threat
that is very real. Should it acquire nuclear weapons or even come
close, it would completely alter the Middle East. It's a very ominous
threat."

Analysts here argue that the prospect of a nuclear Iran would:

* Threaten Israeli, US, and European security.

* Harden Arab positions in any future peace negotiations.

* Increase militancy and embolden hard-liners.

* Destabilize the Gulf area.

* And encourage other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Libya, to
follow suit.


History of Iranian concealment

The US, Britain, France, and Germany say that Iran has been concealing
nuclear research for the past 18 years in pursuit of nuclear weapons,
despite signing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970.

On Monday, the four nations agreed on a strongly worded IAEA
resolution promoted by the US that threatens the possibility of UN
sanctions should Iran continue to violate its agreements.

The US charges that Iran is also developing chemical and biological
weapons, though the country is party to conventions curbing them.
Furthermore, both the US and Israel say that Iran is trying to extend
the range of its missiles, which could be used to develop such
weapons.

Already, the 810-mile reach of Iran's Shahab-3 missile puts Israel and
US forces in the region in striking range. The US charges that Iran
will probably try to develop missiles capable of hitting Western
Europe or the US itself.

Iran has admitted to concealing aspects of its atomic energy program,
but says it is pursuing alternate energy sources, a claim the State
Department dismissed as "simply not credible."

In testimony to the US-Israeli Joint Parliamentary Committee in
September, State Department official Paula DeSutter said, "The impact
of a nuclear-armed Iran in an already volatile region cannot be
underestimated. As President Bush had made clear, that cannot be
allowed to happen."

Israeli officials have echoed that declaration. In November, Israeli
media reported that Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, on a trip to
Washington, told US officials that "under no circumstances would
Israel be able to abide by nuclear weapons in Iranian possession."


'Existential threat' to Israel?

Meir Dagan, director of Israel's external intelligence agency, the
Mossad, told a parliamentary committee this month that Iran posed an
"existential threat" to Israel, according to the Yedioth Ahronoth
newspaper. He reportedly assured committee members that Israel could
deal with this threat.

Like the US, Israel estimates that Iran is three to four years away
from building a nuclear bomb. But Israel believes that in 2004, Iran
will reach the point at which their nuclear program cannot be stopped.

On the same US trip, Mr. Mofaz told a pro-Israeli lobby group that a
nuclear Iran was "intolerable."

"The implicit message of his statements was that if the Iranian
nuclear program is not stopped in the next number of months, Israel
will have to take action of its own -- perhaps even to attack -- to
prevent nuclear weapons from falling into Iranian hands," analyst Amir
Rappaport wrote in the Ma'ariv newspaper.

It would not be the first time Israel has taken preemptive action
against a perceived threat. In 1981, Israeli fighter jets launched a
successful surprise attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor, destroying it.


A push against Iran on all fronts

In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has upgraded
Israel's efforts against Iran's nuclear program by putting all related
committees under Mr. Dagan's command. Mr. Sharon himself will head a
ministerial committee.

In this multipronged effort, Israel's foreign ministry will launch a
diplomatic campaign to persuade other countries to work against Iran's
nuclear program. The Mossad will work with foreign intelligence
agencies, the National Security Council will work with the US-Israeli
Joint Committee, and Israel's atomic energy body will focus on
technical aspects of Iran's program and work with the IAEA.

Israel's concern about Iran stems from the country's proximity, its
longstanding hostility to Israel, and its support for groups like
Lebanese Hizbullah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad.

While these groups launch attacks on Israel and its citizens with
Iranian support, some analysts here say there remains the potential
for direct confrontation between the nations of Iran and Israel.

Zeev Maghen, a senior research associate at Bar Ilan University near
Tel Aviv who studies Iran, disagrees, but he acknowledges, "The amount
of hostility that has built up in the world in general, and the
Islamic world in particular, against my country might push someone
over the edge."

"We're the pariah country," Mr. Maghen adds.

A nuclear Iran would also erode Israel's strategic edge. Israel's
military, the world's 14th largest by budget, according to the Center
for Defense Information, is vastly superior to any of its Middle East
counterparts. Israel is also widely understood to have an arsenal of
nuclear and other weapons, though officials deny this. It is not a
signatory to the NPT.

"Israel has kept an ambiguous posture about this," says Mr. Arad, "but
clearly, should Iran become nuclear, it would clearly be an adverse
development. The country supports terrorism, has taken a militant line
against the peace process, is hostile to the US, and is active in
anti-American attacks [in Iraq]. It clearly poses a very serious
threat to everybody."

...

[Agence France-Presse]

Israel vows to continue to study Iranian nuclear activities


Iran's arch-enemy Israel said Wednesday it would continue to carefully
monitor Tehran's nuclear activities after the UN's atomic watchdog
condemned Tehran for two decades of covert nuclear activities.

"We are still studying this resolution but we will continue to follow
closely the worrying attempts by Iran to develop weapons of mass
destruction, as is the international community as a whole," foreign
ministry spokesman Jonathan Peled told AFP.

"We will have to see if Iran reveals, or if it is revealed, what it
has been up to," Peled added.

A resolution adopted Wednesday by the 35-nation board of directors of
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna balanced US
calls to condemn Iran for 18 years of hidden nuclear activities that
included making plutonium and European demands that Iran be rewarded
for cooperating since October with the IAEA.

The United States dropped demands to take Iran immediately before the
UN Security Council for "non-compliance" with the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

However Washington secured a guarantee, considered a "trigger
mechanism" in the resolution, which says that if "any further Iranian
failures come to light, the Board of Governors would meet immediately
to consider ... all options at its disposal."

Since the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, Israel has come
to regard the Islamic fundamentalist administration in Tehran as its
number one enemy.

Earlier this month, Meir Dagan, head of Israel's Mossad overseas
intelligence service, told MPs that Iran's nuclear programme posed the
biggest threat to Israel's existence since the country was created in
1948.

Dagan also said Israel had discovered in the last three months that
Iran was close to finishing construction of a uranium enrichment plant
in the central Kachan area which could eventually give it the capacity
to build around a dozen nuclear bombs.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is personally supervising efforts to stop
Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal, Israeli army radio reported on
Sunday.

A plan of action had been drawn up during a special meeting Sharon
convened with Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom, Defence Minister Shaoul
Mofaz and Mossad agents, the radio said.

Iran on Tuesday slammed Israel's campaign to convince the world that
the Islamic republic is intent on acquiring a nuclear weapon.

"The falsification of the facts and negative propaganda about Iran's
civilian nuclear activities are totally motivated by the hostility of
the Zionist regime," foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi
said.