Re: Å×ÊÛÃÀ¹«Õ® ÖйúÎÕÍõÅÆ£¨ZT£©

好的决策。
抛售美债，美元下跌，本国货币变强，所以日本不敢大量抛售美债。
关毽是人民币与美元挂勾。美国束手无策，寄望贸易保护主义。


On 23 Nov 2003 07:55:10 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (LT Lee) wrote:

>"Youth" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
>> 中国不可能大幅度抛售美元债券，中国的金融市场还不完善，正处于发展阶段，中国政
>> 府目前几乎是完全继承了西方经济学理论的经验和成果，比如增发国债，购买其他国家
>> 的国债等等，都反映了这样的一种趋势。
>
>I fail to see the relation between immature financial market and
>selling U.S. government bonds. The accumulation of U.S. government
>bond is the direct results of trade surplus with the U.S.
>
>The problem is this: Selling U.S. bond will greatly affect the U.S.
>economy.  Selling at the right time will casue a sudden surge in
>interest rate in the U.S. which will force many mortgage companies
>into bankrupty. Concomittant fall of the dollar, which is already
>falling, will also destroy the US dollar based global system as we
>know it because no other country or economy has the breadth and depth
>of the U.S. dollar based debt market(i.e. credit creation capability)
>
>Gives China 10 more years and the right amount of yuan appreciation a
>Chinese yuan based system is totally possible. (Currently PPP is 4X
>the the exchange based value. 400% appreciate against the dollar. The
>RMB is 75% under valued.) Unfortunately, China may not have the luxury
>of 10 or more years.
>
>Japan had the opportunity to challenge the U.S. economically 20 years
>ago. However, Japanese racism and a relatively small population and
>resourece base had prevented that.
>
>> 
>> 以前我们可以自豪地宣布我们既无外债也无内债，但是在市场经济下，既无外债也无内
>> 债恰恰是一种病态，因为我们没有调节金融运行秩序的有效手段和工具，据我一个老师
>> 说，中国目前的国债发行数量还不足以来左右和影响中国的金融运行秩序，所以他估计
>> 中国还会继续增发国债，同时购入其他国家的债券票据。
>> "wang" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 写入邮件
>> news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> >     就在美国宣布限制大陆叁项纺织品限额进口後，中国已考虑大量抛售
>> > 美国公债因应，事实上，以中国拥有一千多亿美元的美国国债，且是仅次
>> > 於日本的第二大持有国来看，此举确可能冲击美国经济复苏力道。
>> >
>> 
>> 
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