Backcasting Forcasting & working complete models

In backcasting techniques (commonly used by professional futurists) a model
is built withholding the most recent data from the human managing the model.
Once the system finds order in past data, say from the 1980s, it is fed the
record of the last several years. If it can accurately predict the 1993
outcome, based on what it found in the 1980s, then the pattern seeker has
won its wings. Farmer: "The system makes twenty models. We run them each
through a sieve of diagnostic statistics. Then the six of us will get
together to select the one to run live." Each round of model-building may
take days on the Company's computers. But once local order is detected, a
prediction based on it can be spun in milliseconds.

http://www.kk.org/outofcontrol/ch22-d.html

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Historical Reconstruction (Backcasting)

Backcasting is required when disputes arise over historical events. For
example, a group of retail customers may claim that certain wholesale system
sales caused an unjustified rise in their cost of power, or a generator may
claim that transmission access was unfairly denied. Backcasting allows the
re-creation of historical events within a model so that the cost impacts of
changes to what actually occurred (such as allowing transmission access) can
be computed. Slater Consulting has a great deal of experience in Backcasting
and provides expert testimony in support of Backcasting results.

http://slater-consulting.com/historical_reconstruction.htm

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Backcasting is the antonym of forecasting. It entails starting from a
certain Image of the future (say, for the year 2050) and working back to the
present to find out what has to happen to ensure that future scenario is
achieved.

http://www.wau.nl/cool/coolbox/national/futureimages.htm

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Or we could choose an time, say yesterday, deprive the computer system of
the outcome today, set loose an competition of intuitive pattern seeking
algorithms, select the one that found today's outcome, try and predict
tommorow with it. One of the few known techiques that allow us to cut
through extreme complexity to achieve 'simplicity_without_reductionism'.

While forecasting asks about what future is likely to happen, backcasting
examines how desirable futures can be attained.  The execution of
forecasting is to provide a one-time snapshot, while backcasting employs
continuous monitoring.  Forecasting uses *extrapolation* from historical
data to converge on the most likely future while backcasting *interpolates*
from the target setting to diverge in possible futures with regard to
freedom of action.

http://edie.cprost.sfu.ca/summer/mail/msg00023.html

In the above example we interpolate from what happened and how it got there
and multiple varying programs that try to get there without knowing the
outcome.

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Backcasting: Forecasting is the process of thinking about the future as an
extension of the present and the past. Products developed through
forecasting are usually characterized by "er" words": faster, cheaper,
smaller, and stronger. Forecasting is a form of extrapolation that
ultimately is self limiting: sooner or later, products developed based on
forecasting will reach plateaus of diminishing returns, become too complex,
carry too much baggage, or suffer sudden obsolescence caused by power
shifts.

Backcasting is the creative process of identifying future customer needs and
core values, and interpolating back from there to current design strategies.
The starting point for the backcasting approach is the definition of a
desired situation at a determined point in the future. This leads to the
development of scenarios that connect our present status with the desired
future point.

Backcasting helps your product team identify, explore and clarify
restrictions in their thinking about new opportunities, and helps the team
to let go of these constraints. Backcasting also provides alternatives that
challenges the solutions generated from forecasting.

Convergent Design Inc. uses an array of creative problem solving techniques
to take your team through this process, and help them to begin a new
development cycle with the future in mind

http://www.convergentdesign.com/