Re: Does Japan's $93 trillion monetary base include their Postal Savings Accounts?

"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> >news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> >> You can't add the two, since much of the Federal expenditure is
income
> >> >> into the states.
> >> >
> >> >You're not paying attention.  Table 416 shows which part of state and
local
> >> >revenues come from the federal government, and this $270 billion was
already
> >> >subtracted from the calculations.
> >>
> >> Nope.  State and local revenues were only 1,523 billion in that table,
> >> and the total wasn't 1,910 billion in any event.
> >
> >You're looking at the wrong row.  We're talking about state and local
> >expenditures, not revenues,
>
> Then why did you say:
> >Table 416 shows which part of state and local revenues come from the
federal government
> ?
>
> >and this is a simple projection from 1999 to 2003.
>
> You haven't a clue how to do an economic projection, simple or
> otherwise.
>

If you disagree with the projection, why don't you calculate your own?  This
is a conservative projection, and if you take all factors into
consideration, your projection would definitely be even higher.

Give us your expert opinion.  Do you think state and local expenditures are
going to be higher than $1,910 billion in 2003, or lower?

> >> >> Same calculation for Japan using their 2002 budget
> >> >> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c17cont.htm#cha17_4
> >>
> >> >All available references show that General Government Operations in
Japan
> >> >had a $319 billion surplus in 2000 (Revenues of 189,797 billion yen
minus
> >> >expenditures of 155,685 billion yen  = 34,110 billion yen surplus)
> >>
> >> Look at the page I cited above, idiot.  Japan counts their bond sales
> >> (borrowing) in the revenue column. Table 17-7: The 81 trillion yen
> >> revenue in the general account include 30 trillion yen of bonds
> >> (borrowing).  Figure 17-7: the gross debt of the general government is
> >> 150% of GDP. Table 17-10  Local government bonds (deficit financing)
> >> is 11% of local government spending.
> >>
> >> >Since we now know that Japan's GDP is UP, rather than down, and that
> >> >corporate bankruptcies hit an all time low
> >>
> >> Nope.  Near record high last year.
> >> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2675847.stm
> >
> >It's impossible that you followed the link at
>
> Why would I follow your nincompoop link.  I avoid looking at the crap
> on your website, which is noisome stuff pulled from your strange
> orifice.
>
> I used the Japanese government web page cited above.
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c17cont.htm#cha17_4
>
> and used Google to look for current information on Japanese
> bankruptcies.
>
> >if you truly believe this BBC article is accurate.
>
> I'll ALWAYS believe the BBC over you.
>

All you're doing here is admitting that you don't know how to read a simple
table.  This is a table from the Bank of Japan, which ought to be a more
trustworthy source than the BBC to you, but only IF you can read the data.
You obviously can't even analyze this article and compare it to the actual
data, even after the errors in the BBC article were pointed out to you.

Again, you did not dispute that the BBC article is factually in error, plus
intentionally gave its readers the false impression that bankruptcies in
Japan in 2002 were "unprecedented", did you.  The reality is that the actual
number of bankruptcies in 2002 was lower than in 2001, in 1984, and 1983.

No wonder you're so misled--you can't even comprehend what was misleading
about a simple article like this.

> >Not only is the number of cases absolutely typical of
> >Japan's economy over the last 2 decades,
>
> Your claim was that
> >Since we now know that Japan's GDP is UP, rather than down, and that
> >> >corporate bankruptcies hit an all time low
>
> >so if he wanted to make a case for some kind of economic trauma,
>
> He was news reporter telling the latest economic news, not an idiot
> like you trying to prove something.
>

He claimed that bankruptcies in Japan in 2002 were the second highest since
WWII, which is plainly FALSE.  He claimed that Japan is in dire financial
straits when GDP is UP 1.6%, and when personal savings in 2002 were 26.9% of
disposable income, *officially*.

http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japangdp.htm

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/figures/pdf/2004f.pdf

We've NEVER had a personal savings rate that high, yet BBC thinks this is an
economic catastrophe for Japan?  Why?  Why doesn't BBC spend an equal amount
of time predicting the economic demise of the US which has a HUGE problem--a
NEGATIVE 1% personal savings rate?


> >If you didn't know that this is about equivalent to Japan's central
> >government surplus in one year,
>
> The Japanese government web site I posted shows that their government
> is operating under massive deficits.  I trust the Japanese government
> more than I trust you, to tell us the state of the Japanese government
> budget.
>
> >> Since then bankruptcies have dropped but are still high
> >> http://pacific.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2003/10/13/daily30.html
> >
> >See above.  This article is even more worthless and misleading than the
BBC
> >article.
>
> I trust their data more than I trust yours.
>

What do you mean "yours".  This is data from the Bank of Japan.  What you're
admitting is that you cannot *read* a simple table from a credible
statistical source in Japan, and instead must rely on some moron with an axe
to grind at BBC to "interpret" it for you.

They're not "interpreting" the data--they're MISREPRESENTING it, and you're
clearly falling for it, hook, line, and sinker.

I knew schools in Virginia had gotten bad, but this is *really* far worse
than even TIMSS indicates.

> >In addition to that is the gross capital formation of $1,277
> >billion in 2002, which was 50% greater than government spending, so how
> >could it be that "Japan has a HUGE government deficit"?
>
> By having much more in expenditures than they had in non-borrowed
> revenues.
>

Again, you obviously can't read the table
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/figures/pdf/2004f.pdf or you wouldn't
keep making that false statement.  The net sum of all government
expenditures was $91.7 trillion yen, or 17% of GDP.  But gross capital
formation was 50% higher than that, or 25.3% of GDP.

Viewed another way, the increase in the net worth of Japan in one year was
$425 billion more than total government expenditures.

Maybe because you live in a deficit-spending country where government
spending per household is 7% higher than earnings of men employees and 50%
higher than earnings of women employees you can't even comprehend a
government like Japan's which spends so little.  It was so low that the
average Japanese household saved 26.9% of disposable income in 2002, an
average per household of $13,668 per year, *officially*.


Conversely, total personal savings in the US in 2000 were $67.7 billion
(ONLY because of a $130 billion "statistical discrepancy"), a mere $637 per
household.
http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget/fy2003/erp.html

You don't need an economics degree to appreciate, over the course of half a
century, the benefits to Japanese citizens of having 21 *times* as much
personal savings per household as us, do you?

John Knight