Re: Does Japan's $93 trillion monetary base include their Postal Savings Accounts?

"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> >news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >> >"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> >> >news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> >Our savings are low only because our government spending is high--it's
> >> >through the roof.  Table 450 shows that federal spending this year is
> >> >expected to be $2,240 billion, and Table 416 shows that state and
local
> >> >government spending is expected to be $1,910 billion, for a total of
$4,150
> >> >billion.
> >>
> >> You can't add the two, since much of the Federal expenditure is income
> >> into the states.
> >
> >You're not paying attention.  Table 416 shows which part of state and
local
> >revenues come from the federal government, and this $270 billion was
already
> >subtracted from the calculations.
>
> Nope.  State and local revenues were only 1,523 billion in that table,
> and the total wasn't 1,910 billion in any event.
>

You're looking at the wrong row.  We're talking about state and local
expenditures, not revenues, and this is a simple projection from 1999 to
2003.  All else being equal, these expenditures are *expected* to be $1,910
billion in 2003.  This excludes 1999 revenues of $271 billion from the
federal government which are *expected* to be $331 billion in 2003.

> >This calculation doesn't count federal >expenditures twice.
>
> Who knows how YOU got the numbers.  Most likely from your strange
> orifice.
>
>
> >> Same calculation for Japan using their 2002 budget
> >> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c17cont.htm#cha17_4
> >>
> >> Table 17-5
> >> If you add their general and special expenditures and those of
> >> government-related  organizations, and don't eliminate duplication (as
> >> you didn't above), you add 81,230 billion yen, 382,664 billion yen,
> >> and 6,581 billion yen for a total of 470,405 billion yen, or around $4
> >> trillion.  This is not counting the local government  Table 17-10
> >> (which also substantial in overlap) of over 100,000 billion yen (exact
> >> numbers not given for 2002)
>
> >All available references show that General Government Operations in Japan
> >had a $319 billion surplus in 2000 (Revenues of 189,797 billion yen minus
> >expenditures of 155,685 billion yen  = 34,110 billion yen surplus)
>
> Look at the page I cited above, idiot.  Japan counts their bond sales
> (borrowing) in the revenue column. Table 17-7: The 81 trillion yen
> revenue in the general account include 30 trillion yen of bonds
> (borrowing).  Figure 17-7: the gross debt of the general government is
> 150% of GDP. Table 17-10  Local government bonds (deficit financing)
> is 11% of local government spending.
>
> >Since we now know that Japan's GDP is UP, rather than down, and that
> >corporate bankruptcies hit an all time low
>
> Nope.  Near record high last year.
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2675847.stm
>

It's impossible that you followed the link at
http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanbankruptcies.htm or viewed the table
on that page if you truly believe this BBC article is accurate.  Here is the
key FALSE statement from that article:

"Nearly 20,000 firms went bankrupt in Japan during 2002, the second-highest
number of corporate failures since World War II."

According to the Japanese government, there were only 19,087 bankruptcies in
2002, less than there were in 1983, 1984, and 2001, an observation that by
itself makes the above statement FALSE.  There were 20,841 bankruptcies in
1984, 9% more than this year that the BBC proclaimed the demise of the
Japanese economy.  Not only is the number of cases absolutely typical of
Japan's economy over the last 2 decades, but the actual amount of
liabilities from these bankruptcies was lower in 2002 than it was in 1997.
And it was down 73% from 2000, so if he wanted to make a case for some kind
of economic trauma, he should have focused on 2000 rather than 2002 (except
that the actual number of bankruptcies in 2000 was almost a record low,
discrediting the main objective of the story).

"The government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has promised to halve
the number of bad bank loans by March 2005. Japanese banks carry outstanding
loans worth at least 50 trillion yen (£263bn, $423bn)."

If you didn't know that this is about equivalent to Japan's central
government surplus in one year, or that it's one third of their gross
capital formation in one year, this might sound like a problem.  Obviously
it's not even if the statement is 100% accurate.

"But as Japan's economy is mired in recession and unemployment near record
highs, analysts warn that the political fallout of these social costs could
still scupper the proposed reforms of the financial sector".

This may be the most misleading statement of the article.  It's very
disappointing that a news source as credible as the BBC would make such an
INTENTIONALLY FALSE statement.  By NO means is it correct to claim that
"Japan's economy is mired in recession" when Japan announced an
after-inflation positive growth rate of 1.6% of their GDP.

MORONS read this an accept it--you have the data you need to understand and
dispute it, so why bother to try to foist this psycho-babble off on this
forum as a "fact"?

> Since then bankruptcies have dropped but are still high
> http://pacific.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2003/10/13/daily30.html
>

See above.  This article is even more worthless and misleading than the BBC
article.

> >> Table 17-5
> >> If you add their general and special expenditures and those of
> >> government-related  organizations, and don't eliminate duplication (as
> >> you didn't above), you add 81,230 billion yen, 382,664 billion yen,
> >> and 6,581 billion yen for a total of 470,405 billion yen, or around $4
> >> trillion.  This is not counting the local government  Table 17-10
> >> (which also substantial in overlap) of over 100,000 billion yen (exact
> >> numbers not given for 2002)
> >
> >Household surveys like this have some amount of statistical error, but
it's
> >impossible for the error to be that much.  If total of living
expenditures,
> >local taxes, sales taxes, and federal taxes are less than $2.6 trillion,
> >then it's impossible for their taxes alone to be $1.4 trillion higher.
>
> Well, you are forgetting corporation taxes, but the whole point is
> that there IS a gap between taxes and expenditures.  It is large.
> Japan has a HUGE government deficit.  Look again at Figure 17.8 in:
>
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c17cont.htm#cha17_4
>
> lojbab

All this jumping up and down and arm waving could have been avoided if you'd
just followed the link to
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/figures/pdf/2004f.pdf which was at
http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japangdp.htm which shows that government
final consumption expenditure in 2002 was only $852 billion, less than 17%
of GDP, an amount that includes more than $300 billion in government
surplus.  In addition to that is the gross capital formation of $1,277
billion in 2002, which was 50% greater than government spending, so how
could it be that "Japan has a HUGE government deficit"?

Averaged over all 46 million households, private final consumption
expenditure was $60,742 each, almost twice as high as the $32,088
expenditure that the household surveys report.
http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanhouseholds.htm

Could the $28,654 difference be personal savings?  Over 46 million
households, this is $1.3 trillion.  Considering how detailed these household
surveys are, it's hard to imagine what other expenditures make up that
$28,654.

John Knight