Re: Does Japan's $93 trillion monetary base include their Postal Savings Accounts?

"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >"Bob LeChevalier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> >news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >Our savings are low only because our government spending is high--it's
> >through the roof.  Table 450 shows that federal spending this year is
> >expected to be $2,240 billion, and Table 416 shows that state and local
> >government spending is expected to be $1,910 billion, for a total of
$4,150
> >billion.
>
> You can't add the two, since much of the Federal expenditure is income
> into the states.
>

You're not paying attention.  Table 416 shows which part of state and local
revenues come from the federal government, and this $270 billion was already
subtracted from the calculations.  This calculation doesn't count federal
expenditures twice.

>  With only 106 million households in the US, this is $39,151 per
> >household, considerably more than the $30,436 median income of black
> >households and the $33,455 median income of Hispanic households.  How can
> >these households be expected to save money when government spending is
29%
> >and 17% higher than total incomes to them?  How can they simply survive
> >without eating into personal savings and other assets?  The majority of
> >American household types have median incomes lower than government
spending
> >of $39,151 per household.
> >
> >This isn't true in Japan,
>
> Same calculation for Japan using their 2002 budget
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c17cont.htm#cha17_4
>
> Table 17-5
> If you add their general and special expenditures and those of
> government-related  organizations, and don't eliminate duplication (as
> you didn't above), you add 81,230 billion yen, 382,664 billion yen,
> and 6,581 billion yen for a total of 470,405 billion yen, or around $4
> trillion.  This is not counting the local government  Table 17-10
> (which also substantial in overlap) of over 100,000 billion yen (exact
> numbers not given for 2002)
>
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c02cont.htm#cha2_5
> 46.782 million households.
>
> Run it through the calculator and get
> General government expenditures per household 10.055 million yen.  The
> local government numbers would add around another 2.4 million yen to
> this.
>
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c13cont.htm
> Monthly household income is 538,277 yen, or multiplying times 12,
> 6.459 million yen.  So by the same method you used, the Japanese
> general government is spending more than 50% more than the average
> household income.
>
> Even using the "net total" after removing redundant accounting for the
> general government (Table 17-5) of 248,400 million yen, or 6 million
> yen per household, you have the Japanese federal government ALONE
> spending 90% of the average household income, and the local government
> expenditures would add to this.
>
> >where total government spending is only 9% of household incomes,
>
> The liar is caught again.
>
> >and even with such a low cost of government, the Japanese
> >government is expected to have a 33.3 trillion yen or $303 billion
surplus
> >this year.
>
> http://www.fpcj.jp/e/shiryo/jb/0302.html
> >Government bond issues cover nearly 45% of the general account budget
> > for fiscal 2003, meaning that the government's fiscal situation is
> > abnormal, since nearly half of the budget is dependent on debt.
>
> The deficit this year is 45% of the government budget, liar.
>
> > By
> > March 2004 the total amount of outstanding government bonds is
> > expected to total ¥450 trillion. If the long-term outstanding bonds
> > issued by both national and local governments are included, this
> > figure rises to ¥686 trillion.
>
> That is a national debt of $6 trillion, which is MORE than their GDP.
>
> >Also, more Japanese than Americans own their own home (66% vs. 63%),
>
> The Japanese government numbers say 60% (Table 14.1)
> http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c14cont.htm#cha14_1
> They also note that the average Japanese household lives in 89.59 sq
> meters or around 900 square feet, less than half the size of the
> typical American home.  Only 83% of those homes have flush toilets.
> This is hardly "advanced living".
>
> But if you love it so much, you are welcome to live there.
>
> >Na, now that I've had time to put your joke into perspective, this isn't
> >something worth laughing about.
>
> Good.  Then you'll be leaving on which flight to Tokyo, in permanent
> departure?
>
> lojbab (not laughing)

The "Income and Expenditures of All Japanese Households" survey shows that
the only portion of taxes on Japanese workers' household income which isn't
included in their median monthly living expenditure of $3,995 is the federal
tax of $1,373 per month (which is "expenditure" less "living expenditure")
on the following pages:

http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanhouseholds.htm

      http://www.stat.go.jp/data/soutan/2002d/zuhyou/s01d.xls



40 million workers' households thus pay a total of $1.9 trillion in living
expenditures annually, from which all of their other taxes besides federal
taxes of $659 billion annually are paid.

So total living expenditures, state and local taxes, and federal taxes, are
$2,559 billion, which is 51% of their $5,058 billion GDP.  The other 49%, or
$2,499 billion, is called "gross capital formation", a combination of
private savings, government savings (which usually runs at 8% of GDP), and
other *savings*.

All available references show that General Government Operations in Japan
had a $319 billion surplus in 2000 (Revenues of 189,797 billion yen minus
expenditures of 155,685 billion yen  = 34,110 billion yen surplus)

http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanbase09022002.htm

http://web.archive.org/web/20021002000011/http://www.stat.go.jp/english/19.h
tm


The main Japanese web page at http://www.stat.go.jp/english/19.htm shows
that Japan's surplus for 2001 was $311 billion (revenues of 186,909 billion
minus expenditures of 153,673 billion yen = 33,237 billion yen surplus).

Since we now know that Japan's GDP is UP, rather than down, and that
corporate bankruptcies hit an all time low
http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanbankruptcies.htm rather than Japan
going bankrupt, it's a good bet that in the final analysis for 2002 and
2003, this surplus will be equivalent or higher, for a total budget surplus
of more than $1.2 trillion in JUST the last 4 years.

> Table 17-5
> If you add their general and special expenditures and those of
> government-related  organizations, and don't eliminate duplication (as
> you didn't above), you add 81,230 billion yen, 382,664 billion yen,
> and 6,581 billion yen for a total of 470,405 billion yen, or around $4
> trillion.  This is not counting the local government  Table 17-10
> (which also substantial in overlap) of over 100,000 billion yen (exact
> numbers not given for 2002)

Household surveys like this have some amount of statistical error, but it's
impossible for the error to be that much.  If total of living expenditures,
local taxes, sales taxes, and federal taxes are less than $2.6 trillion,
then it's impossible for their taxes alone to be $1.4 trillion higher.

On top of that, the above calculation used a very high estimate for living
expenditures.  Some months, the survey shows average living expenditures to
be as low as 332,937 yen or $3,112 per month.

John Knight