Re: Does Japan's $93 trillion monetary base include their Postal Savings Accounts?

"Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
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> "James Powell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
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> > "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
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> > > "James Powell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
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> > > >
> > > > "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
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> > > > >
> > > > > "James Powell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> > > > > news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > > > > "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> > > > > > news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > "James Powell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> > > > > > > news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > > > > > > > "Christian Party" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> >
> > <snip>
> >
> > > > > ps--here's a hint.  The AVERAGE workers' household in Japan in
> > December
> > > > 1999
> > > > > socked away another $5,000 in savings in just that one month.
> > > >
> > > > So? And how do you know that was not the total scraped up for the
last
> 6
> > > > months, deposited at the end of the year when it was determined to
be
> > > > "surplus"? I routinely 'siphon' money from my checking to my savings
> > once
> > > I
> > > > have determined it won't be needed for immediate expenses.
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > That big jar of pennies you keep in the closet will break long before
> you
> > > get to 0.2% of what the Japanese banked that month, James.
> > >
> >
> > You are so funny.
> >
> > I didn't take a bath when the market went down, probably because I am a
> more
> > intelligent investor than you. What is YOUR average rate of return?
> >
> > >
> > > > > What does that tell you about this PSA report?
> > > > > http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japan1999income.htm
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > That we only have your word these numbers really exist.
> > > >
> > > > James Powell
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Did you follow the links?  Do you really think I made this up?  If so,
> why
> > > on earth would I do that?  If you want to see the original printout,
> just
> > > ask, but don't infer that a single figure at that url was fabricated.
> If
> > > you even attempt do that, I will prove you to be a liar, James.
> > >
> > > John Knight
> > >
> >
> > What links? The only links are to spreadsheets on YOUR site. If you have
> an
> > original printout, then scan it in and make it available as a pdf. BTW -
> > Since the figures are from 1999, they are no more valid than a snapshot
of
> > our economy in the same year for making predictions about the current
> > situation.
> >
> > Given your history, I would infer the numbers are either (a) fabricated,
> (b)
> > 'massaged', or (c) misinterpreted. You have no clue what you read.
> >
> > James Powell
> >
> >
>
>
> This is so typical of you, "James".  You're undoubtedly incapable of
> comprehending trends, averages, or anything else related to 2 x 2.  Just
for
> grins, though, try to understand why a data point in 1999 which shows a
> savings RATE is just as valid (or invalid) today as it was in 1909.  Try
to
> appreciate that you can never demonstrate that there has ever been such a
> huge change in Japanese savings habits that a data point from a mere 4
years
> ago could be invalidated.  You cannot do that, so this savings rate is
just
> as valid (or invalid) now as it will be a thousand years from now (unless
> you can somehow predict that Japan's savings habits will change over that
> time).  Since you cannot do that, the 1999 figure is just as valid (or
> invalid) as the 1997 figure which is just as valid (or invalid) as the
2003
> figure.
>

The rate was valid for 1999. It is not valid for 2003. It tells us what the
Japanese economy was doing in 1999. It tells us nothing about what that
economy has done since then. Therefore, it is useless, except from an
historic perspective. You cannot, although you try so hard, extrapolate from
a single data point. Now, show the relevant figures for all years 1999
through 2003 and we will see if there is an actual trend worth discussing.

> It's obvious that you're not a man, "James".  It's obvious that you're a
> woman who "thinks" just like a woman, and that means you "think" that math
> is just like a rubber yard stick which can be bent to fit your "feelings",
> which it's not.  Japan's official savings rate varied between 30-34% each
> and every year in the half century that we have figures available, so it's
> very unlikely that the 1999 figure would be off by more than 4%.  And even
> if it was, that would be an important data point to have to analyze
Japan's
> long term savings trends, further invalidating your absurd claim that
"they
> are no more valid than a snapshot of our economy".
>

No. You 'think' the rate varied between 30-34% each year. You have not shown
that the average Japanese saved at this rate, nor do the official Japanese
numbers. I point out that the 'propensity to consume' for February 1999 was
87.6% (according to the archived version of the link).

> Why don't you check out the errata at the bottom of
> http://members.fortunecity.com/zz8/japanpsa.htm , apply your superior
> women's intuition, and prove yourself by telling us where you think the
> error is, "James".
>
> John Knight
>

Between your ears, as usual.

Note the report is for February 1999, not December!

http://web.archive.org/web/19990501142307/http://www.stat.go.jp/156.htm

It shows the average income at 512,994, not the farcical "1,080,114 yen" you
quote for December. Are you going to state the average Japanese worker
DOUBLED their monthly income in 10 months?

Hell, prove that and I will move to Japan tomorrow!

James Powell