Re: Moon key to space future?

[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Rand Simberg) wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
> On 1 Dec 2003 19:10:24 -0800, in a place far, far away,
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (william mook) made the phosphor on my
> monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:
> 
> >> >Now, now - that statement comes directly out of your gut with no
> >> >analysis whatever.  There is a reasonable probability that a second
> >> >Kennedy term  expands the space program while adopting more direct
> >> >international controls to limit and reduce the spread  of nuclear and
> >> >missile weapons systems.
> >> 
> >> There is almost zero probability of that, 
> >
> >Of what exactly?  That the US adopts a more direct means of control of
> >WMDs than keeping them secret? 
> 
> No, that a second Kennedy term expands the space program.

Oh, I see.  Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by 'expand' - 
During Kennedy's tenure as President the space program enjoyed
something like 4% of GDP.  Today it obtains less than 1/2% of GDP.

I'm not arguing that it would grow to more than 4% of GDP under a
Kennedy second term.  I am arguing that it would have remained at 4%
GDP to the end of the 1960s - which is sufficient to do important
things in space, and under the right conditions, would lead eventually
to private development of space based resources and assets.

In the context of today's less than 1% - maintaining a 4% GDP
expenditure for NASA counts as a huge expansion of NASA power and
influence from what it currently is.

> 
> >> to anyone who understands
> >> Kennedy's true attitude toward the space program.
> >
> >Oh, please tell me, the true attitude of Kennedy toward's the space
> >program, and how in a hypothetical second term the space program would
> >not be expanded.  Especially given speeches like;
> >
> >http://www.rice.edu/webcast/speeches/19620912kennedy.html
> >
> >
> >
> >> >This isn't fantasy.  
> 
> Listen to what he said about it in private, not in public.

Pointers?  Source material?  I'm willing to listen to facts and
understand the context of those facts.

I agree that Kennedy is unlikely to have expanded the NASA budgets
much beyond the 4% GDP they enjoyed at their peak.  I disagree that
Kennedy would have cut back NASA spending below 4% GDP during his
tenure as President. Today NASA spends about 1/2% of GDP.  If they
spent 4% GDP - in today's economy, they'd be spending $400 billion per
year.  A few decades of this level of spending - with the right
leadership and vision - and under the right business conditions -
would lead to the development of space business in a big way.