Re: Backcasting Forcasting & working complete models

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Reanimater_2000
@yahoo.com says...
> 
> "Bernardz" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > says...
> > > Buncha crap.  The world is dripping with massive financial gain to be
> > > had by anybody who can accurately predict anything subject to
> > > empirical validation, horseraces to stock markets to lotteries
> > >
> >
> > These are example where people are competing and learning, it does work
> > for say sales of oranges in a store?
> >
> 
> Suppose you are the manager of a local grocery store. You want to sell more
> oranges. You have a record of those times when you sold more and those times
> when you sold less. You find some of the time you sold more and further
> divide that group into situations more similar to yours now and other
> unsimilar circumstances. Of those times where you sold more where the
> circumstances are similar you have backcasted.
> 
> Ideally you would take that time and and the compared times together but
> eliminate the latest outcome and then make you model variable enough to have
> a diverse and differing set of solutions within a range and find those that
> solved what was removed. These are identical enough in some situations to
> see an answer not easily seen.
> 
> Two steps forward and one back to proceed in a circuitous but directional
> manner.

Actually PosFocus technique does all this for you automatically. You 
feed in all the variables and it goes looking though various models and 
comes up with the one that fits best. I can verify that focus or 
Backcasting in this situation does give good results.

However I have tried this technique on economic figures like interest 
rates, inflation rates and share prices and it fails miserably.



-- 
To the person satisfied with things as they are now, a scary thought is 
that tomorrow will be different from today.

15th saying of Bernard