Re: Japanese papers reveal huge quake

Gerard Fryer <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in news:gerard-
[EMAIL PROTECTED]:

<Snipola>
> What is new is the additional analysis. The BBC picked up on the latest 
> issue of JGR (probably prompted by a press release) which has an article 
> by Satake, Kelin Wang, and Brian Atwater. The paper is an attempt to 
> work out rupture dimensions and moment, guided by the shoreline 
> geological evidence (Atwater), the GPS and plate locking evidence 
> (Wang), and computer modeling (Satake).
> 
> True, the determination that there was a giant earthquake on Jan 26 1700 
> is not news, but there were plenty of sceptics (including me) waiting 
> for stronger evidence. The new compilation further justifies the giant 
> earthquake hypothesis, and imposes valuable constraints on what the 
> event was really like. This follow-up work was essential, and this paper 
> will not be the end of it--the earthquake hazard assessment for the 
> Pacific Northwest deserves no less.

New analysis? That's good. But the BBC article didn't mention
anything about NEW data. I just went back and re-read it to
make sure I didn't overlook something. I saw nothing that
was NEW news to me.

Although this is new news to some, the article was written
in such a way that one get's the impression that it IS new
news, period. That's why it received my sarcastic remarks.
It's like turning on the TV and the top story is that there
was a magnitude 6.7 quake in Northridge, CA on January 17, 1994.
Certainly not NEW news.

As for the reality of the 1700 event, from the books I've
read, paricularly "Living With Earthquakes In The Pacific
Northwest" I had the impression that 1700 was a forgone
conclusion.

Of course further study is needed. We need to determine the
extent of potential damage from a repeat, to determine the
recurance interval, and to determine if the whole Cascadia
Subduction zone was more likely to go at once in a 9+ or to
be a "decade of terror" with multiple 8+ quakes over several
years.

I have the impression that if the whole thing went most
of Western North America would know it. Almost makes the
San Andreas sound like a ride in the park.

Brian