Re: Max lifespan increasing too slowly

Despite the vague numbers and shaky math, I think I'll beat this dead horse
one more time.

"Johnny Astro" wrote...
>
> "Tim Tyler" wrote...
> > In sci.life-extension Johnny Astro wrote:
> > : "Tim Tyler" wrote...
> > :> In sci.life-extension Johnny Astro wrote:
> >
> > [Re: http://www.lauralee.com/news/130years.htm ]
> >
> >
> > : But if the rate of increase of the rate of increase [was] constant:
> then in 30
> > : years it went from 5 months per decade to 13 months per decade.  So in
> 60
> > : years it would be at 29 months per decade.  It would reach 120 months
> per
> > : decade in just over 400 years, if my math is correct.
> >
> > :> The article itself points out the fact that the rate of increase
> > :> appears to be increasing.
>
> That was more difficult to calculate.  I figure the rate of increase is
> increasing at 3.22% per year.  That comes to immortality in 2071, when the
> rate of increase passes 10 years per decade, for the lifespan of the very
> oldest people.  Naturally, immortality for the few at the maximum is not
> exactly the same as immortality for the average person.  Average maximum
> lifespan increases like this:
> 2000:  108 years
> 2010:  109 years 5 months
> 2020:  111 years 6 months
> 2030:  114 years 3 months
> 2040:  118 years 2 months
> 2050:  123 years 5 months
> 2060:  130 years 8 months
> 2070:  140 years 8 months
> 2080:  154 years 4 months
> So, it actually looks like there's a chance for anyone under 140 years old
> in 2070.  By this crude estimate anyone born after 1930, who already
expects
> to live well over 100, has a reasonable chance of reaching it.
>

Forget the centenarians, what about the average person?  The US census
bureau recently released 2001 data, that average lifespan is 77.2 years:
74.4 for men and 79.8 for women.

By the table above lifespan of the oldest people would increase by 30.25%.
If that number held for everyone (another "if"!) then in 2070 average
lifespan would be an amazing 100.5:  96.9 for men and 104 for women.

Roughly speaking, half of the people born in 1970 would live indefinitely.
It doesn't look as good for me.  Maybe I need to look for a different set of
numbers!