Re: GMO in Developing Nations

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Oz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Bruce Sinclair <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes
>>In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Oz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
>>wrote:
>>>Bruce Sinclair <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes
>>>>I haven't seen this benefit anywhere. Is it real ? Has the price for food 
>>>>(incidentally NOT very high anyway :) ) really come down ?
>>>Take a look at farmgate prices in the EU and US.
>>>The statistics should be easily found via google.
>>I'd suggest farmgate price would be exactly the wrong data to look at. We have
>>already agreed that commodity prices are falling. My question is ... have the 
>>food prices to the consumer fallen ? .. is this directly related to GE ?
>Food prices to the consumer have indeed fallen in real terms.
>The fact that the supermarkets tend to take most of the saving doesn't
>mean that shelf prices wouldn't be even higher without the farmgate
>fall.

Proving that would be impossible ... one  way r the other.

>Please note that direct GE imports to the EU are muted.

muted ? 

>>>>>Over the last few generations the price of basic food commodities has
> fallen
>>>>>steadily. 
>>>>This is irrelevant as to GE or not. The price of all comodities has fallen 
>>>>in real terms. It was doing so before GE ... it will continue to do so in
> all 
>>>>likelihood.
>>>No with farmers worldwide all losing money (which they are) it won't.
>>>At the end of the day it can only be cheaper if its produced cheaper.
>>.. and if the increasing number of middlemen don't boost their take ... which 
>>has often been the case.
>Indeed, but they would have increased their take to the max anyway.
>Just look at milk pricing for that.

Not sure if that's a good example :)

>>>>>This is obvious when you see the amount of land and output that it
>>>>>now takes for a farmer to make a living, this has been growing steadily. My
>>>>>Grandfather could make a good living on 34 cows and 60 sheep, employ three
>>>>>men and even in the 1950s take foreign holidays and also have a weeks
>>>>>holiday in London prior to Christmas.
>>>>>Now the number cows necessary to support one family in the UK is reckoned
> to
>>>>>be about 150, and to employ three staff you are probably looking at about
>>>>>300.
>>>>Because we have machines to do much of the work ... 
>>>Yup, a combine harvester at 350k UKP.
>>>This has to be paid for, you know.
>>Indeed ... but it costs less than people.
>
>Not quite sure about that, what is so is that in the UK farm
>mechanisation has more been powered by shortage of people willing to do
>the job at any money. That was certainly the case with herbicide use in
>veg (and sugarbeet) in the UK. Farmers turned to herbicides because
>hoegangs simply were not obtainable at any price. Come to that, that
>also powered the move to mechanical milking.

Maybe ... but I think you'll find that people are more expensive that 
mchines to do the same job. 

>>>>and becuase commodity 
>>>>prices have fallen.
>>>Because they can be produced more cheaply.
>>Nope ... because more and more the buying is in the hands of a very few. IIRC 
>>we have 2 major supermarket chains in NZ.
>>I'm not sure how much of NZ's food they handle .. but I'd be prepared to guess
>>it's be 80 % ? They buy cheap because they can ... and they are the only (ish)
>>game in town. Again .. this is not related to GE.
>
>It's more related to world prices, which is.

Given that most food isn't moved around the world, how can you justify 
this ?

>>>>>Each advance, such as the introduction of tractors, the introduction of
>>>>>herbicides and pesticides, as merely lead to the increase in production of
>>>>>food per man, and the fall in price. GM is merely the next step on that
>>>>>road.
>>>>Possibly. I am yet to be convinced.
>>>The look the stats up for yourself.
>>I have ... as I say ... I am yet to be convinced :)
>>Remember this is stats :)
>
>Look them up for yourself, it doesn't take long on google, since you
>clearly prefer to disbelieve things that contradict your religion.

I will happily believe reliable numbers. That said, all numbers come 
with assumptions, conditions ... blah blah blah. Is there such a thing 
as  a "right" statistic ? ... I doubt it. Not religion ... just a 
healthy does of cynicism. :) YMMV.

>>>>>As for the benefit to the consumer, the proportion of the income of the
>>>>>urban population is lower, allowing them more money to spend on other
>>>>>things. 
>>>>Proportion used on food ? I'd agree (as minor as I believe that amount is)
> ...
>>>>except I've seen nothing to suggest that the food price is in any way
> related 
>>>>to GE.
>>>Take a look at world grains/soya prices.
>>In NZ (at least) soy price is mostly irrelevant to food. We don't eat much 
><sigh> That controls world meat prices.

Well, in part it might. It sure doesn't in many places ( <apologies 
.. shouting accidental ... caps lock :)> COS WE CAN SUPPLY MEAT 
CHEAPER RIGHT NOW ... BUT TRADE RESTRICTIONS MEAN WE AREN'T ALLOWED 
TO. Work that one out ... we can't. :)

>>I'm informed that most grain goes for animal feed (particularly in the US).
>yes, but that controls milling wheat premiums.

Which is relevant how ?

>>Any concrete ge link to price ... or indeed to any benefit ?
>I'm not sure if you are simply ignorant of basic food economics, or just
>have your ears closed.

Show me one single benefit. Show me a decrease in price that is linked 
to GE. Show me any kind of reliable data that suggests it.
I've looked. I've found nothing. You may be more trusting than me and 
blindly trust any numbers that you are given  ... so be it :)

Bruce




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It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to 
think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone´s fault. 
If it was Us, what did that make Me ? After all, I´m one of Us. I must be. 
I´ve certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No-one ever thinks 
of themselves as one of Them. We´re always one of Us. It´s Them that do 
the bad things.         <=> Terry Pratchett. Jingo.