Re: New York Times re Fermi's Question

Anthony Cerrato replied:

[...]

> Jonathan, I was thinking along the same lines, except at the
> level of 1%. But even at 0.1%, and if we look in the other
> direction, the "others" (or, at least some of them) could
> also easily be 10 million years _ahead_ of us! (Brings us
> right back to Fermi again-i.e., where are they?)
>
> That intelligent civilizations could have started quite
> early after the BBang is supported by the latest studies
> showing that the earliest 1st gen stars in the universe may
> have been born as early as 200 million yrs. after the
> BBang--possibly, even earlier. 

Your viewpoint seems overly simplistic. Consider that the BB
created mainly hydrogen and helium. Any early stars are likely
to have only gas giant planets.

The creation of carbon and other elements heavier than lithium
are thought to result from supernova explosions.

> More and more, I am coming to
> believe that the Fermi question is best answered by the
> conclusion that there are myriad ETIs in our galaxy, at all
> stages of development, including those megayears beyond us,
> and they aren't here because (even at the highest state of
> development) interstellar travel is just too difficult, or
> too costly, or too dangerous (for many reasons) -- or all of
> the above.

At least you correctly identify your belief as a belief.

Personally this is so far beyond what you can know that I
don't see how you gained this belief.

> Even if it _is_ feasible, IS travel may simply take many
> orders of magnitude longer to spread a civ. throughout a
> galaxy than we suppose. And orders of magnitude harder to
> maintain! There is no sub- or hyper-space, or handy wormhole
> stargates to act as shortcuts to the galaxy as in SF--it is
> sad to think of the myriad races, on myriad planets, looking
> up at the night stars, and feeling every bit as lonely as we
> do. I wish it weren't so, but...

Hmmm, your belief seems to have grown up into a fact.

Rich

> ...tonyC
>
>
> > --
> > Rabbit arithmetic - 1 plus 1 equals 10
> > Remove spam and invalid from address to reply.