Re: New York Times re Fermi's Question

"Jonathan Silverlight"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in
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> In message <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Eric
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> writes
> >
> >What if it generally takes this long for evolution to
produce a species at
> >our level? Maybe the galaxy just sat around forming for
the last 10 billion
> >years and finally, after all that time civilizations are
just starting to
> >emerge? Perhaps there are a few thousand civiliztions out
there and maybe
> >most of them are at 1000BC or earlier levels and maybe
only a few are at
> >our level and maybe only a very few are ahead of us? Its
not inconcievable
> >(although unlikely) that we are on the leading edge. One
thing i hardly
> >ever hear mentioned is that sure there are 200-300
billion stars in our
> >galaxy but most of it is a malestrom of radiation and
totaly uninhabitable.
> >Isnt it true that only the outer areas of the galaxy are
quiet enough to be
> >possibly liveable? I'm not willing to say, right yet,
that we are on the
> >bottom end of things. There is no evidence of that, in
fact, the current
> >evidence is that we are on the leading edge and the most
advanced species
> >around. I'll grant you that may change, but right here
right now, we are
> >the first.
>
> While I agree that a solution to the "Fermi Paradox" is
that we are the
> first, I doubt if the others are only a few thousand years
behind us.
> That's good for cheap TV series, but given the enormous
times involved
> they could be ten million years behind, and that's still
only 0.1% of
> the time involved. It's going to be lonely for a while.
> OTOH, in another ten million years we could have colonised
the whole
> galaxy, and be happily evolving into enough alien species
for a thousand
> "Star Trek" series.

Jonathan, I was thinking along the same lines, except at the
level of 1%. But even at 0.1%, and if we look in the other
direction, the "others" (or, at least some of them) could
also easily be 10 million years _ahead_ of us! (Brings us
right back to Fermi again-i.e., where are they?)

That intelligent civilizations could have started quite
early after the BBang is supported by the latest studies
showing that the earliest 1st gen stars in the universe may
have been born as early as 200 million yrs. after the
BBang--possibly, even earlier. More and more, I am coming to
believe that the Fermi question is best answered by the
conclusion that there are myriad ETIs in our galaxy, at all
stages of development, including those megayears beyond us,
and they aren't here because (even at the highest state of
development) interstellar travel is just too difficult, or
too costly, or too dangerous (for many reasons) -- or all of
the above.

Even if it _is_ feasible, IS travel may simply take many
orders of magnitude longer to spread a civ. throughout a
galaxy than we suppose. And orders of magnitude harder to
maintain! There is no sub- or hyper-space, or handy wormhole
stargates to act as shortcuts to the galaxy as in SF--it is
sad to think of the myriad races, on myriad planets, looking
up at the night stars, and feeling every bit as lonely as we
do. I wish it weren't so, but...
...tonyC

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> Rabbit arithmetic - 1 plus 1 equals 10
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