Re: The Fermi Paradox and Economics

John Ordover wrote:
> > 	Are you refering to the Concorde going out of service? 

> Yes.

	That was never intended to replace all commercial aircraft.

> > I am aware of a slight lowering of 
> > speed in the newest commercial designs in exchange for greater capacity making the overall 
> > cost per pound lower. Unless you are refering to the Stealth planes which are not intended 
> > to replace other types I am unaware of any speed reduction in military planes.

> The Blackbird was the fastest military plane.  It was reitred quite a
> while back.

	That was never intended to do other than espionage missions. But if your criteria is 
solely that it is owned and operated by the military then there is the entire X-series 
which were faster and were retired in the 1960s when manned orbiters and the moon landing 
replaced the program. They were as much military planes as the Blackbird.

> > > You're assuming that as time goes all, will we gain the ability to do
> > > anything we want, inexpensivel.  That may not be the case.

> > 	The price of things has been decreasing ever since things were invented. The same goes 
> > for natural resources. Both statements are correct barring price fixing and correcting for 
> > inflation and increased performance. Keep in mind the difference between price and cost.

> Since there will always be price fixing, you can't just hand-wave it
> away.  And as natural resources get scarcer, they go up in price -
> used to be only the poorest of the poor ate shelfish.  Now they're a
> luxury item.

	The price of raw materials has been decreasing for the same thousands of years that the 
price of things has been decreasing. The price of raw materials is still decreasing.

> The factors that bring down prices over time, such as increased
> production and competition, leading to efficencies, simply do not
> apply to space, because a giant consumer market does not exist.

	It took four centuries to create a "giant" consumer market in the New World.

> > 	My assumption is in line with thousands of years of experience.

	And therefore something you need to address.

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