Re: BEST SERIES?

>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]  (AresFC)

>I want to find out people opinions on the greatest series in the
>history of baseball. 

Somebody did a mathematical study of this based on...

How close the games were, both in final score, and inning by inning.

How long the series went

How many times the lead changed hands, etc...

Here it is....the guy's screen name was Dennis Boz, not sure what his real name
was...


Using a system of âratingâ how good a playoff game was based on the score
after each  inning, Iâve scored all the playoff games back to 1916. Games
are rated based on closeness (how close the home team win probability is to
50%) and turnaround (the change in win probability from the last  inning).

Using the system, the best playoff games are all extra inning contests. This
makes sense, since a 15-inning game probably has some kind of late comeback + 6
innings of sudden death. The top ten (average game rating is about 5):

Series Road Homes Innings Rating
1995 ALDS1..G2 Mariners 5 Yankees 7 15 19.85
1999 NLCS....G5 Braves 3 Mets 4 15 19.30
1986 NLCS....G6 Mets 7 Astros 6 16 16.95
1916 WS......G2 Robins 1 Red Sox 2 14 15.75
(complete game win for Babe Ruth)
1995 ALDS2..G1 Red Sox 4 Indians 5 13 15.66
2000 NLDS2..G3 Giants 2 Mets 3 13 13.82
1975 WS......G6 Reds 6 Red Sox 7 12 13.59
2000 WS......G1 Mets 3 Yankees 4 12 13.46
1945 WS......G6 Tigers 7 Cubs 8 12 13.13

Worst Game (4-way tie)
1996 NLCS...G7 Cardinals 0 Braves 15 9 1.56
1960 WS.....G3 Pirates 0 Yankees 10 9 1.56
1998 WS.....G2 Padres 3 Yankees 9 9 1.56
2001 WS.....G6 Yankees 2 Dbacks 15 9 1.56

Top 9 Inning Game
1993 WS......G4 Blue Jays 15 Phillies 14 9 10.05
1960 WS......G7 Yankees 9 Pirates 10 9 9.92
1977 NLCS...G3 Dodgers 6 Phillies 5 9 9.81
1984 NLCS...G4 Cubs 5 Padres 7 9 9.42
2000 NLCS...G2 Mets 6 Cardinals 5 9 9.14
1995 NLDS1..G1 Braves 5 Rockies 4 9 8.77
1972 WS......G4 Reds 2 Athletics 3 9 8.59
1995 NLDS1..G2 Braves 7 Rockies 4 9 8.55
1988 ALCS....G2 Red Sox 3 Athletics 4 9 8.55
2001 WS......G7 Yankees 2 Diamondbacks 3 9 8.48 

Once the games themselves are rated, they can in turn be used to rate how good
a playoff series is. The simplest rating is to sum the game ratings. The
results areâ

Series Games Rating
1999 NLCS.....Total 6 54.35
1991 WS.......Total 7 52.65
1975 WS.......Total 7 51.92
1986 NLCS.....Total 6 49.36
1980 NLCS.....Total 5 46.60
1924 WS.......Total 7 46.59
1995 ALDS1...Total 5 46.01
1997 ALCS.....Total 6 45.88
1921 WS.......Total 8 42.82
2001 WS.......Total 7 42.10

Worst Series
2000 NLDS (Atlanta/St Louis) 

The usual suspects appear: 1975 WS, 1991 WS, 2001 WS, 1980 NLCS. But in no way
can the 1999 NLCS can be considered the best playoff series ever. The problem
with including that series is that the Braves won the first 3-games draining
the excitement from the rest of the games. It has the second highest rated
playoff game ever (G5) and the 19th highest rated game as well (G6). The score
for G5 is half of the score of the entire 2001 WS. Too much weight is given the
outlier and the context the game is played is ignored. This system also gives
an advantage to 7-game series over 5-game series.

So I looked at the average game scoresâFor context,

10% of all playoff games rate 9+
13% of all playoff games rate 8+
20% of all playoff games rate 7+

Series Games Average Score
1980 NLCS...Total 5 9.32
1995 ALDS1..Total 5 9.20
1999 NLCS...Total 6 9.06
1969 ALCS...Total 3 8.87
1986 NLCS...Total 6 8.23
1995 NLDS1..Total 4 7.72
1997 ALCS...Total 6 7.65
1995 ALDS2..Total 3 7.56
1991 WS......Total 7 7.52
1975 WS......Total 7 7.42

Worst Series
2000 NLDS (Atlanta/St Louis) 

This has a different problem; short series have an edge. Two 3-0 series sweeps
make the list. Again, a single outstanding game can put you on the top of the
list. To avoid single games from skewing the results, I converted the ratings
into percentiles.

Series Games Average Game Percentiles
1980 NLCS....Total 5 86.10%
1995 NLDS1..Total 4 77.86%
2000 ALDS2..Total 3 75.80%
1999 NLCS....Total 6 74.96%
1997 NLDS1..Total 3 74.38%
1975 WS......Total 7 73.89%
1996 ALDS2..Total 4 73.34%
1970 NLCS....Total 3 72.88%
1969 ALCS....Total 3 72.52%
1995 ALDS1...Total 5 71.16%

Worst Series
2000 NLDS (Atlanta/St Louis) [a triple crown] 

Four 3-0 sweeps make the list again. The 1980 NLCS is amazing by this measure.
It is farther from the #2 series than #2 is from #10. Not only that but only
it, 75 WS and 95 ALDS1 went the distance.

My final attempt was to weight the game scores by the status of the series. A
game played with the series tied 2-2 will count more than the same game with a
team up 3-1 in the series. The weights were based on how much the chance of
winning the series would shift depending on if the next game was won or lost.
In a 7-game series, the G1 weight=31.25%, G7 weight=100%. If the series was 3-0
then the weight for game four would be 12.5%

This system favors longer series, series that go the distance and series with
an outstanding last game.

Series Game Score Weighted Score
1980 NLCS....Total 5 46.60 27.67
1924 WS......Total 7 46.59 25.73
1975 WS......Total 7 51.92 25.41
1991 WS......Total 7 52.65 25.21
1995 ALDS1..Total 5 46.01 24.56
1986 NLCS....Total 6 49.36 21.70
2001 WS......Total 7 42.10 21.70
1997 WS......Total 7 36.55 20.52
1952 WS......Total 7 40.35 20.04
1925 WS......Total 7 38.54 18.79 

The 1999 NLCS vanishes from the top ten. No series sweeps are on the list. Only
one of these series did not go the distance. None of the recent series that are
included surprise me. But even with the bias towards longer series, a 5-game
series rates the highest.

I guess one could add a discount factor in for championship series and a larger
one for division series since they are just stepping stones to the WS.

But as a Phillies fan, I just canât do it.