Re: Schilling likely headed to Boston

SportsChump <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Why is it relevant to point out Schilling had odd reasons for missing
> itme last year, but it isn't to point out that Pedro missed time in
> 2001 with an arm problem that hasn't benn a problem since then?

The point is that the reason Pedro's innings have been going down the last 
three seasons is a direct result of his shoulder injury.  Pedro has opted 
not to have shoulder surgery to repair his shoulder.  Schilling's injuries 
last year had nothing to do with his arm falling off, and in other words, 
had nothing do with his workload.  Pedro's injury was directly related to 
his workload, and his limited him since.

[...]
> Also I agree that it is an okay timeframe to try to minimize sample
> size issues.  But in this case it is NOT spotting a trend becuase 2001
> is no a typical season for Pedro.  If you meant it or not you can't
> deny that the 3 season timeframe is the one that makes Schilling look
> the best and Pedro look the worst, and it is completely because 3
> seasons ago Schilling probably had his best season while Pedro had his
> only major time missed due to injury.

Okay, you choose to believe that 2001 was unrelated to everything that's 
happened since.  I clearly can't convince you to see what I see, which is 
that Pedro's shoulder can't generate the velocity and workload it used to, 
and that this development is directly related to his injury in 2001.

> So why should I not be concerned that he isn't going to have
> reoccuring shoulder problems?

Because Schilling has had shoulder surgery which repaired his 
injury--something Pedro has not done--and he's put up monster workloads in 
the seasons since then--also something Pedro has not done.

> I'll agree that it is easy and so is one season and there Pedro is
> much more valuable.

Fine.  I could have cherry-picked just the 2001 season to show Schilling 
was a lot more valuable than Pedro, but I didn't.

> Well you asid that Schilling was putting up more valuable seasons year
> in and year out.  That is not the same thing as being more durable.

Actually, I said Schilling was putting up more high-value innings year in 
and year out, which *is* the same thing as being durable.

> And he very well may be.
> Just like he was in AZ.  Of course he would not have been enough to
> push them over the top without Randy Johnson there, and he won't be
> enough in Boston WITHOUT Pedro there.

Probably true, but clearly Pedro alone couldn't do it, either.

> IF the Sox win next year with both those guys then you can say that
> Schilling put them over the top, but you can't say that it makes him
> better than Pedro.

I wasn't trying to.  I was just pointing out that Schilling is not so easy 
to dismiss by the people who're decrying the deal because it means they'll 
lose Pedro.  I'm pointing out that by the time Pedro leaves the Sox (if he 
does), Schilling will probably be the more valuable pitcher, thanks to the 
steady decline of Pedro's health.

> It is also silly to ignore that Schilling is old, and old pitchers
> sometimes go down hill fast.  I don't think he will, at least not next
> year, but if I had to better who will be better in 3 years I think
> Pedro is a safer bet.

Now you're engaging in wishful thinking.  Schilling is blessed with a very 
durable body.  He's built a lot like Roger Clemens, who has pitched 
effectively into his 40s.  Randy Johnson has also pitched very effectively 
in his late 30s and into his 40s.  Nolan Ryan in some ways was a better 
pitcher in his 40s than in much of his youth.  Pedro's five years younger 
than Schilling, but his body is much less durable, and there's a history 
in his family of shoulder problems (remember his older brother Ramon?).

Maybe the Sox will do what the Dodgers wouldn't do with Ramon and they'll 
manage to baby Pedro's shoulder until he's bored with baseball and he'll 
continue to pitch brilliantly in fewer and fewer innings until they move 
him to the bullpen to close games and he becomes the second coming of 
Dennis Eckersley.

But I doubt it.  Pedro's got some existing damage to his shoulder that has 
not completely healed, and as he gets older, his body's ability to deal 
with that damage will decline until he can't pitch anymore.  That's a sad 
thought, but wishing it weren't so doesn't make it less likely.

--Paul
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