Re: Schilling likely headed to Boston

Paul Wylie <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
> Ryan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > I think it's a poor move by the Sox. Schilling is getting old, he
> > already gets a lot of money, and he wants a contract extension. Nomar,
> > Manny, Varitek, and Pedro are more valuable.
> 
> Schilling may be getting old, but he's still putting up more valuable 
> innings every year than Pedro.  

As good as Schilling was last year explain how he was more valuable
than Pedro LAST year?  Pedro had more innings and a MUCH better ERA,
in the AL.

Over the last three seasons, Schilling has 
> put up a 3.07 ERA over 684 innings, with 83 HRs and 104 BB allowed, while 
> amassing 803 Ks.  Over that same span, Pedro has had a 2.27 ERA in only 
> 502 2/3 innings, allowing a miniscule 25 HRs, but 112 BBs against 608 Ks.
> 

Nice Cherry picking.  
In 2003 Pedro had an ERA of 2.22 in 186.2 innings with 7(!) HR, 47
walks, and 206 K's.  Schilling had an ERA of 2.95 in 168 innings with
17 HR, and 32 walks, and 194 K's.  So that is 2.27 BB/9 for Pedro and
1.71 BB/9 so that is an advantage for Schilling but Pedro kills him
0.34 HR/9 to Curt's 0.91.  And for K's Schilling wins with an
impressive 10.39 K/9 to Pedro's 9.93.
Pretty close, but I'd have to take Pedro since ERA and IP is more
improtant than the secondary stuff.


> Pedro has a significant edge in ERA and HRs, but his walk rate is 
> significantly higher, and Schilling has pitched 36% more innings in that 
> time frame.  Having Schilling in your lineup means you have to rely on 
> your fifth or sixth-best starter a *lot* less than you do with Pedro in 
> your lineup, and your bullpen gets a lot more rest, which means you can 
> use your best reliever in high-value situations more often.

You used a very favorable timeframe though.  Last year alone is
already covered but..

Since 1999:    IP     ERA    H/9    BB/9   K/9     HR/9
Schilling    1074.2   3.29   8.056  1.616   9.405  1.131
Pedro         933.0   2.10   6.395  1.746  11.624  0.492

Decent innings advantage to Schilling.  However Pedro KILLS him in
ERA, H/9, K/9 and HR/9, and is surprisingly close in walks too.  But
it is obvious that Pedro was MUCH more valuable overall even in
slightly less innings.

Since 1994:    IP     ERA    H/9    BB/9   K/9     HR/9
Schilling    1979.1   3.30   7.903  1.892   9.530  1.005
Pedro        1964.0   2.58   6.741  2.273  10.535  0.660

This was Pedro's first year as a starter.  The innings are a wash,
Schilling picks up ground in walks, and closes that gap a bit in
everything else.  But again it is pretty obvious that Pedro was more
valuable over those time frames.

Not that there are good reasons to pick these timeframes, but there
wasn't any good reason to pick the last 3 seasons except that
Schilling had a great season in 2001 while Pedro missed half the
season (The only major time he has ever missed).


> 
> > If you sign Schilling and let Varitek, Pedro, or Nomar go, you will
> > take three steps back in the end, simply because there's no guarantee
> > that the Sox would win everything next year. Schilling will then be
> > useless and the Sox won't have any of the younger guys.
> 
> Keep in mind that the Sox have the second-highest budget in baseball, so 
> it's not as though they have to clean house to bring in Schilling.  It 
> appears they're already trying to work a deal to get A-Rod, which would 
> make Nomar redundant (almost any way you look at it, that's an upgrade).  
> Pedro may go away after 2004, but that may have been unavoidable even 
> without Schilling on the staff.  It seems pretty evident that Pedro wants 
> a big multiyear deal, and it's just too risky to give him that kind of 
> contract when there's no telling whether his arm will fall off.
> 
> Keep in mind that Schilling's time on the DL in 2003 was due to two things 
> that are unlikely to happen again in '04:  He had an emergency 
> appendectomy (that can only happen once) and he was hit in his pitching 
> hand by a line drive.  Pedro's time out of the lineup is usually because 
> his shoulder is sore or weak--that's a much scarier thing.
> 

OF course he missed time this season with a throat ailiment and a
pulled muscle in his abdomen and didn't miss any time in 2002.
If "usually" means 3 seasons ago then I agree.

> And don't forget, when the D-Backs visited Fenway in 2002, Schilling 
> outpitched Pedro.  

Steve Traschal did that once too, what is your point?

Pedro may be a great big game pitcher, but Schilling 
> has a World Series ring.
> 

So do lots of shitty players (Not that Shcilling is) and I woulnd't
rather have them than Pedro.