Re: Schilling likely headed to Boston

Ryan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> I think it's a poor move by the Sox. Schilling is getting old, he
> already gets a lot of money, and he wants a contract extension. Nomar,
> Manny, Varitek, and Pedro are more valuable.

Schilling may be getting old, but he's still putting up more valuable 
innings every year than Pedro.  Over the last three seasons, Schilling has 
put up a 3.07 ERA over 684 innings, with 83 HRs and 104 BB allowed, while 
amassing 803 Ks.  Over that same span, Pedro has had a 2.27 ERA in only 
502 2/3 innings, allowing a miniscule 25 HRs, but 112 BBs against 608 Ks.

Pedro has a significant edge in ERA and HRs, but his walk rate is 
significantly higher, and Schilling has pitched 36% more innings in that 
time frame.  Having Schilling in your lineup means you have to rely on 
your fifth or sixth-best starter a *lot* less than you do with Pedro in 
your lineup, and your bullpen gets a lot more rest, which means you can 
use your best reliever in high-value situations more often.

> If you sign Schilling and let Varitek, Pedro, or Nomar go, you will
> take three steps back in the end, simply because there's no guarantee
> that the Sox would win everything next year. Schilling will then be
> useless and the Sox won't have any of the younger guys.

Keep in mind that the Sox have the second-highest budget in baseball, so 
it's not as though they have to clean house to bring in Schilling.  It 
appears they're already trying to work a deal to get A-Rod, which would 
make Nomar redundant (almost any way you look at it, that's an upgrade).  
Pedro may go away after 2004, but that may have been unavoidable even 
without Schilling on the staff.  It seems pretty evident that Pedro wants 
a big multiyear deal, and it's just too risky to give him that kind of 
contract when there's no telling whether his arm will fall off.

Keep in mind that Schilling's time on the DL in 2003 was due to two things 
that are unlikely to happen again in '04:  He had an emergency 
appendectomy (that can only happen once) and he was hit in his pitching 
hand by a line drive.  Pedro's time out of the lineup is usually because 
his shoulder is sore or weak--that's a much scarier thing.

And don't forget, when the D-Backs visited Fenway in 2002, Schilling 
outpitched Pedro.  Pedro may be a great big game pitcher, but Schilling 
has a World Series ring.

--Paul
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