Barry Bonds vs. Ted Williams

I'm one of the biggest Ted Williams fans on the planet and have been
reluctant to admit that Barry Bonds may indeed have to be recognized
as the best left fielder ever.  I decided I'd look at it again today.

We all know that Bonds has Ted beat in baserunning and fielding, but
the two things -- especially the latter -- are hard to quantify in terms
of value.  So there's always some debate over whether or not Ted's
advantage in hitting overcomes Barry's advantage elsewhere, or vice
versa.  But if Barry passes Ted in hitting, then the question is moot.

I figured I'd look at OPS+ seasons, ranked from highest to lowest.

Ted:    235, 233, 217, 215, 209, 205, 201, 192, 189, 189, 178, 172, 168
Barry:  275, 262, 231, 206, 205, 191, 186, 182, 177, 170, 170, 168, 162

Graphically:

280     260     240     220     200     180     160     140     120
 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |

                   TT     TT T T T  TTT   T  TTTTT                  T
   B    B            B         BB  BBB BB    BB BB     B       B    B

The top three years by Barry were 2002, 2001, and 2003.  So prior to his
incredible run, I think Ted's a clearly better hitter.  But adding on
the last three years (and extending the scale so we could fit them on!)
definitely tilt things in Barry's favor.

Barry's totals are 6496 outs, 1327 1B, 536 2B, 74 3B, 658 HR, 500 SB,
140 CS, and 2070 BB in a league with a composite OPS of .736.  Ted's line
is 5291 outs, 1537 1B, 525 2B, 71 3B, 521 HR, 24 SB, 17 CS, and 2021 BB
in a league with a composite OPS of .765 (both league averages are already
adjusted for the home parks of the players).

So For the additional 1205 outs Barry has made, he's produced 210 *fewer*
singles, but 137 more homers, 3 more triples, and 11 more doubles -- as
well as 476 steals and 123 CS and 59 more walks.

I'd say that the overlap in their careers definitely favors Bonds, even
before you consider the difference in their hitting environment.

The only thing that Ted-o-philes have to hold onto now are the missing
war years.  But even five more years of 200 OPS+ kind of performance
might not be enough to bridge the gap by the time Bonds is finished.

Barry is King.  I've got a little framed Cooperstown memorabilia thing
hanging on my wall with ten postcards that the Hall of Fame sells under
the glass -- one for each position, plus a LHP and RHP.  After Bonds is
elected, I'm taking Ted's postcard out and replacing it with Barry's.

(I plan on replacing Bench with Piazza, too, but that's a different
thread.)

Doug
--
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 ___,  Doug Massey, ASIC Digital Logic Designer
 \o    IBM Microelectronics Division, Burlington, Vermont           |>
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