Ensberg Redux

I haven't forgotten how my once-lofty predictions for Morgan Ensberg fell
flat in 2002.  However, I'd like to note that my predictions for 2002
(.280/26/90) are almost dead-on for 2003 (.283/21/55 so far).

So I was almost right; just off by one year :-)

Of course, I also thought Beltre was going to be a stud.

--Ben

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old post dug up from google
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            Search Result 2
      From: Thomas A ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
      Subject: Re: Need help on Ensberg 3B
            View: Complete Thread (5 articles)
            Original Format
      Newsgroups: rec.sport.baseball.fantasy
      Date: 2002-03-19 06:16:11 PST


Ben is the President of the Morgan Ensberg Fan Club.  For an opposing view,
see the following from the Baseball Notebook:

Q.  Why do you have so few at bats projected for Morgan Ensberg?

A.  The Ensberg forecast is because I don't think he's ready to play in the
majors and I believe that will show quickly.  He's a good example of how the
plan can go out the window if a player struggles (which we also say will
happen to Cesar Izturis of the Dodgers).  I'm projecting Ensberg as a .230s
hitter with good but inconsistent power.  Ensberg has just 4 major league
games under his belt and though he's been exceptional in the minors the past
two years, I don't believe it will immediately translate and he's older than
most think at twenty-six.  If I'm wrong about his playing time, it will be
because I'm wrong about his ability.  If he goes out and hits .300 in April
with the same sort of power I know he has, then obviously he's not going to
lose his job.  As it stands now, it would be contradictory for me on one
hand to project him as a .230s hitter but, given that the Astros have
several other candidates even without Chris Truby, also say Ensberg is going
to play 150 games.  I suspect that if you disagree with me on him, it's
because we see a different type of player.  I say he's going to lose
whatever job he wins if he hits as I expect.  If I'm wrong about him, it
will be on the ability side.  The playing time simply goes in hand with
that.

"Ben Edelman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Buy John Sickels' Minor League Scouting Notebook.  Well worth the $20.
>
> Here's Ensbergs #s:
>
> 2001 in AAA: .310 / .397 / .592; 23 HR, 61 RBI in 87 games only (injury)
> 2000 in AA: .300 / .416 / .545; 28 HR, 90 RBI in 137 games
> Career: .274 / .389 / .491; 71 HR, 251 RBI in 406 games.
>
> His power is for real, as is his AVG and walk rate.  However, he will turn
27 in
> August, and so isn't considered a top prospect by most.
>
> He could easily hit .280 / 26 / 90 this year, although of course he could
flop
> entirely as well.