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RC/25 Introduction (Preliminary Final)



The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position.  Here are a bit of definitions:

RC/25:

        A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game.  (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats.  For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me.  It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)

        A = H + BB - CS
        B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K
        C = AB + BB

        RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
        O = AB - H + CS
        RC/25 = RC / O * 25

Bill James has since revised the formula for RC.  The formula that he currently
uses has somewhat different weights for BB, SB, and K.  (The full formula
also has changes for the weights of HB, SH, and SF.)  I have decided to adopt
these changes, as well as the change to measure marginal lineup effect; see
above for the modification.  There are two other changes, however:

1.      He adjusts for BA with runners on base.  Originally, the adjustment was
        not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
        Handbook and other sources.  I am, however, not incorporating this
        change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
        increasing team-dependence.

2.      He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR.  Again, this
        is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
        1B, 2B, or 3B?  Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
        reduces the usefulness of RC.

PRC/25:

        Park-adjusted RC/25.  Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try.  However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles.  For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.

Value:

        An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team).  For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.

Notes:

1.      For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
        season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
        (This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2.      Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
3.      As some have suggested, I am considering incorporating last year's
        factors somehow into the mix.  They are not included with *this* batch
        of reports, however, as I am still pondering over whether and how to do
        this.

"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu ([EMAIL PROTECTED])



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