NW7US Propagation Update for CQ WW CW Contest Weekend

The solar activity that took us by surprise during the
end of October and beginning of November 2003 has me 
revising my outlook for the CQ WW CW contest period of 
November 29 and 30.  I am now expecting conditions to 
be a bit rougher than I forecast in my column.  Using 
the 27-day solar cycle as a guide, we are looking at 
Low to High Normal conditions.  Low- and mid-latitude 
paths will be good, while high-latitude and polar 
paths will be poor to fair.  There is a slight to 
moderate chance that the major sunspots will return 
with enough flare activity to cause daytime radio 
blackouts during the weekend.

The predictions right now call for a maximum Kp index 
of 3 for both days, and an estimated Ap index of 15.  
The low geomagnetic activity forecast is very 
conservative, though, since I still expect the 
sunspots to hold enough punch to create coronal mass 
ejections that will elevate the geomagnetic activity.
As you know, the more active the geomagnetic field, the 
more likely the ionosphere will recombine, lowering the 
MUF.  The 10.7-cm flux is expected to be between 160 
and 170, since the sunspots will have returned.

Therefore, I expect that the higher bands will be poor 
to good, depending on the path: Trans-equitorial paths
(N/S) will be the best, while polar paths will be the 
worst.  The middle HF bands will be fair to good.  If 
flaring occurs with enough intensity, the nighttime low 
HF bands will be degraded, too.

Those operating in low-latitudes will fair the best, to 
be sure.  But, that is typical, during any condition.  
Those who will be at high-latitudes will certainly have 
a challenge.  But, that is what CW is all about, right?  
I'll keep a watch on things, and post an update as we 
get closer to the contest weekend.

More at http://prop.hfradio.org