Re: NW7US Updated Forecast for CQ WW CW weekend

Really appreciate these updates,  and information .

Dan/W4NTI

"Tomas - NW7US" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Here is my updated predictions for the CQ WW CW contest
> weekend (29-XI-2003 UTC and 30-XI-2003 UTC):
>
> The solar activity that took us by surprise during the
> end of October and beginning of November 2003 has me
> revising my outlook for the CQ WW CW contest period of
> November 29 and 30.  I am now expecting conditions to
> be slightly degraded compared to the forecast conditions
> published in the CQ Magazine.  ( See my latest
> "Last Minute Forecast" chart at http://prop.hfradio.org/ )
>
> Using the 27-day solar cycle as a guide, we are looking at
> Above Normal on day one, to High Normal conditions on day
> two of the contest weekend.  Low- and mid-latitude paths
> will be good, while high-latitude and polar paths will be
> fair.
>
> The predictions right now call for the planetary A index
> (Ap) to be 10 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003, and 15 on
> 29-XI-2003.  (Some predictions called for the Ap to remain
> at 15 for both contest days, making day one only
> High-normal conditions).  The 10.7-cm Flux is predicted to
> be at least 165 to 180 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003.  On
> 30-XI-2003, the flux is expected to fall to about 160.  A
> maximum planetary K index (Kp) of 3 is expected for both
> days.
>
> Polar geomagnetic forecasts are calling for unsettled
> conditions for trans-polar and high-latitude propagation
> paths.  This will make over-the-pole contacts more
> challenging.
>
> Will solar flares play havouc on the bands during the
> daylight hours during the contest?  The sunspot regions,
> 507 and 508, pose the most risk for flare activity.  Both
> have beta-gamma magnetic configurations.  Old sunspot
> region 498 is expected to return from around the sun on
> day one, but will still be on the very edge.  It is
> predicted to have a beta configuration, so 498's flare
> risk is low.
>
> A note about magnetic configurations of sunspot groups:
> Sunspots classed as "beta" groups are simple bipolar
> regions.  "Beta-gamma" sunspot groups are more complex and
> consist of an irregular mixture of magnetic polarities.
> The "delta" magnetic configuration only occurs when two
> closely-spaced, opposite polarity umbrae appear within a
> single penumbra.  This characteristic implies that magnetic
> field gradients are high and that respectable levels of
> magnetic shear may exist around the two opposite polarity
> umbral spots.  Sunspot regions that possess the "delta"
> configuration are the most potentially volatile and
> flare-prone active regions.  Some of the most powerful
> solar flares in recorded history (including the rare
> white-light flares) have issued forth from complex sunspot
> regions containing magnetic delta configurations.
> The most complex magnetic configurations of sunspot groups
> is known as a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
> ( More information:
> http://sidc.oma.be/edu/classification.html ) I expect that
> there will be minor flare activity from these regions
> over the contest weekend.  This will impact the highest
> bands (10 to 15 meters).
>
> Therefore, I expect that the higher bands will be poor
> to good, depending on the path: Trans-equitorial paths
> (N/S) will be the best, while polar paths will be the
> worst.  The middle HF bands will be good over most paths.
> The low HF bands and the MW band will fair nicely, since
> the backgound X-ray levels are expected to be in the
> B-class range, and very little geomagnetic activity is
> expected.
>
> Those operating in low-latitudes will have the best
> propagation into most areas of the world.  All stations
> will have a slight challenge for any over-the-pole
> paths.  Mid-latitude stations should otherwise have
> good conditions, while high-latitude stations will have
> fewer higher frequency openings.
>
> I'll be watching things closely, and will update my
> predictions if warrented.  You can find the latest
> version at http://prop.hfradio.org/
>
> Happy DXing!
>
>
> 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
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