Chances of a new mud?

I guess I qualify as an "old-timer" regarding Muds.  I was a wiz on
Lars' original Genesis mud, and I used to run a mud of my own for a
few years - shut it down in '94.  Since '96 I have only been playing
Ancient Anguish (ancient.anguish.org 2222), which seems to be one of
the few text-only Muds that still attract new players.

Now, my question is directed to those who have attempted to start a
new mud in the past few years - what are the chances of a "new" mud
mamaging to attract enough players to be viable?