Re: this sounds like a whine I know.....

On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 06:21:07 GMT, Douglas Zare
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>
>
>Warwick wrote:
>
>> >It's like tossing a fair coin, computing the percentage of
>> >the tosses that are heads. If you decide to stop after the
>> >first head comes up, then you will get 100% half of the
>> >time, 50% 1/4 of the time, 33% 1/8 of the time etc. So,
>> >if you average by match, you would find too many heads.
>> >You need to weight the short matches less.
>>
>> Would you not have to weight it against the strength of opponent as
>> well?
>
>No. Also, you don't have to measure luck perfectly accurately.
>Any unbiased estimate of the luck should average to 0 if there
>is an average.
>
>> If the players are not of equal strength, and if the superior player
>> can create luck by virtue of better look ahead perception, then you
>> would expect the better players to have better luck, and it would not
>> necessarily tend to zero over many matches? In which case luck is also
>> a measurement of skill, or related to it at any rate.
>
>Strong players do not create luck. Strong players take advantage
>of luck more efficiently than weak players. Luck should average
>to 0 whether or not there is a skill difference.
>
>Outcome = Net Skill + Net Luck.
>
>Since the outcome is easily measured, and the net luck is easy
>to estimate in an unbiased fashion with a bot, this provides an
>unbiased way to estimate the net skill. See my articles on
>GammonVillage on this, "A Measure of Luck"
>http://www.gammonvillage.com/backgammon/news/article_display.cfm?resourceid=411
>
>and "Hedging Toward Skill"
>http://www.gammonvillage.com/backgammon/news/article_display.cfm?resourceid=412
>.
>
>Douglas Zare
>

Thanks to both of you for the advice:).

Doug,
Regarding access to the articles, I found a compilation of your own
articles via google, where you point out that Gammon Village is now a
subscription service but you would like to retain free access to the
older articles.

However the links on that page point back to GV subscription page.

I choose not to support GV, please let me know if you intend to
publish the articles in any other medium. (not necesarily free access,
but any other vehicle that is not GV)

Thanks again
Warwick