Re: this sounds like a whine I know.....

Douglas Zare said on 11/26/2003 2:34 PM:

> az-willie wrote:
>
>  
>
> > Over a range of matches, if FIBS is truly random, everyone's luck factor
> > should equal 0 ( zero ).
> >    
>
> You need to be careful with this. Luck should average to 0
> only if you weight the matches appropriately. I believe you
> should weight your luck rate by the number of your rolls.
>
> ============
>  
I think that since I am using the luck rate per roll instead of the 
overall luck rate per game that it is already weighted. The number of 
rolls won't make a difference since I am using the per roll luck figure. 
Maybe -- heck I'm no statistician.

I started doing this to see how the overall trend of my luck was doing. 
It is easy to think you are losing matches because of bad luck ( well 
easy for me anyway ) and then the numbers can show me that maybe my luck 
was above that of my opponent(s) and it was poor play on my part.

Although I just looked and I've won 41.9% of 31 matches and every match 
I lost my luck rate was lower than the opponent. In some cases gnubg 
gave me a higher FIBS rating than the opponent but I still lost, and the 
matches I won I had a higher luck rate than my opponent. So, in general 
( I know it isn't statistically valid ), I've had good luck 41% of the 
time and bad luck 59% of the time. It also makes me realize that I'm not 
good enough to overcome bad luck, I'm sure many players are.

But it's obvious my win/lose is directly tied to my luck, no question 
about that.

The problem is becoming good enough to overcome bad luck.

As long as I've had luck equal to or better than the opponent I won. 
However, I need to note that I have avoided playing high rated players 
and tried to stay with opponents under 1500 or so for the most part 
since I know I don't have the skill to play with the big boys.

I'll be curious to see if this pattern continues to hold as I play more 
matches and get them entered.


--
Clinton lied ... and ... Hillary cried.

Bush lied ... and ... thousands died.