Re: [OT] Sports betting books.

<Bud> wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 13:08:38 -0600, "Octo the Genarian"
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >I think common sense suggests that given a finite bankroll each wager
calls
> >for a different size bet depending on EV and SD (not sure if SD really
> >varies in sports bets though).
>
> I couldn't disagree more.  If you think it is worth your trouble to
> make a bet than that bet should equal x percent of your
> bankroll--period.  You should be betting x for every and all bets.
>


Why? Say your bankroll consists of 30 units. You are presented with 3
wagers, each with an 11:10 payoff. One wager will win 90% of the time, one
75% of the time, and one 60% of the time.

Each wager is +EV. Under your strategy the proper method is to put ten units
on each wager. I think common sense suggests you should do something like 15
units on the 90% wager, 10 on the 75% wager, and 5 on the 60% wager.

This scheme would have both a higher EV and a lower risk of ruin.

Right?

I just made all that up but it seems right to me. I think the general
concept is called 'Kelly betting'.