Over The Short Term: BS vrs. Counting

Am I correct in assuming that for the short term (i.e., 3 day Vegas
vacation or once a month or so for maybe 8 hours) player that an
accurate basic strategy player using a conservative money management
system enjoys about as good a shot at going home a winner as does a
serious and accurate counter using a 1 to 10 spread?  Again, I'm
talking "over the short term".  I realize and accept that "over the
long term" (i.e., tens of thousands of hands and many, many
hours/days/months/years spent playing) the accurate and disciplined
counter will have about a 1% (or very slightly higher) positive
expectation versus the basic strategy player at minus .42 to .50 per
session.  But, in the short term with BJ fluctuations being what they
are, it's my suspicion/theory that a BS player using conservative
money managment (flat betting 10 maybe 15 and never spreading/pressing
more than 3 times that amount) probably stands an even better shot at
escaping the trap a winner because of his much less risk of ruin
exposure.  In closing, it just dawned on me that the answer to this
question is very important to be because I'll never have deep enough
pockets to pursue BJ as a vocation (which definitely dictates
counting!).....but I do love to play, but I need to justify my
gambling by theorizing that by using BS over the short term I enjoy
just as much of a chance at winning as do "the big boys".  The
question is important because if I'm wrong in this "theory".......then
I gotta give up doing something I love based on the age old
adage..."DON'T PISS INTO THE WIND!"  Thanks in advance for any
info/advice.  CARPE DIEM !