Re: Tower situation

Erik Steiro wrote:
> 
> On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 18:09:24 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 
> >
> >
> >Erik Steiro wrote:
> >>
> >> On Thu, 27 Nov 2003 09:41:29 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >>
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Erik Steiro wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> On Tue, 25 Nov 2003 19:12:12 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
> >> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> >

> >
> >The point of all this was not to prove that Elaida was going to sit
> >forever in the Amyrlin Seat.
> >
> >
> >Let me recap:
> >
> >

[re-capping]

> 
> You got this for the most part right, except that as I have written
> before. I believe Elaida to be finished no matter what.
> 
> Even if she is Amyrlin as the BA is revealed, her failure as a ruler
> is just to obvious that the AS can ignore it in a time of crisis as
> this is.
> 
> In a more peace full time she might have had a slim chance, but with
> Tarmon Gaidon just around the corner, then no.
> 
> It is possible that it will stop her from being stilled, and reduced
> to servant for the rest of her days.
> 
> She might even still be an ordinary AS, since I think the normal
> penalty, exile, will not be used as every AS is needed in the coming
> conflict between the Light and the Shadow.
> 
> But this is the best possible future I can see for Elaida.

How's this - after Alviarin has been caught and the info of the BA have
been squeezed out of her, Elaida could have Alvi secretly offed, and
blame her for 
some of the disasters that happened, while taking responsibility for
others (i.e. those that she can't blame on Alvi). I think both Dumai's
Wells and the Black Tower could possibly be indirectly blamed on Alvi by
saying that some of the info that was passed along to Elaida from Alvi
was faulty.  

I disagree that the Tower has a policy of eating it's leaders in times
of crisis - how long did Bonwhin rule in defiance of Hawkwing's siege? 
Years? Decades? 
It must have been a long time, or the Tower wouldn't have made such a
fuss about her supposedly disastrous leadership. 


> 
> >Now, this is where I have a problem.
> >I'm *not* saying that Elaida will end up victorious.
> >I'm saying that a successful Purge, with _Elaida_ in the forefront of
> >it, would leave the Tower in her hands. She wouldn't be taken to trial,
> >she would be lauded for removing the greatest menace to the Tower in
> >history.
> >
> >Therefore, I don't think the Purge will happen under Elaida's rule.
> >You believe that it can, with Elaida still being removed by her
> >underlings, but I don't buy that for a second.
> 
> No, I don't.
> It was more of a  'what if ' situation, where Elaida somehow managed
> to hold out long enough for this to happen.
> 
> I do believe Elaida will be kicked  out off the Amyrlins office any
> book now.

Well, you have certainly left me with the impression that you believed
it was a possibility. 

In any case, moving on.


> 
> >As I see it, either possibility (Alvi failing or succeeding in her
> >counter-Hunt) is _viable_ with Elaida dead.
> >
> >But I think the possibility of Alvi succeeding is greater in any event,
> >and greater still with Elaida dead.
> >Having the Amyrlin's authority behind you would be used to great effect
> >during a Purge; without it, the Hunt could soon flounder.
> >
> >This is why I argue that the Hunters will be stopped short by Alviarin,
> >have to flee the Tower for the SAS camp with the Test Tube (pardons,
> >Oath Rod), and continue the Purge there (presumably under Egwene's
> >leadership).
> 
> It could happen of course, even if I think the purge will happen
> differently.
> 
> You would need for them to save Egwene for some reason, in cooperation
> with Gawyn "the moron" Trakand.


A reason for them to save Egwene isn't that hard...without Elaida, and
BA breathing down their necks, it's paramount to have a beneficiary
leader that will pave the way of a successful Purge. 
In order to get such a leader, you need to have ready access to test, in
order to make sure that she's not BA. 
I believe Egwene (as a prisoner of the Tower) would fit the bill better
than most everyone else - a prisoner has no say in who pays a visit,
while an Amyrlin certainly does (and is frequently visited as well,
which makes planning of testing a great deal more difficult).

As for Gawyn, well, at least he is affiliated with the Tower, and would
be susceptible to requests of help from the BA Hunters - especially when
he hears of the intended target. 
Why they would approach him - well, he has been rather vocal wrt Elaida
'disowning' the Younglings. I assume RJ could contrive something so that
the BA Hunters would hear about it (perhaps through Tarna Feir - I
believe she and Pevara were close).


[SAS Hall] 

> >Any deadlock at all would be extremely damaging in the face of an absent
> >Amyrlin, IMO.
> >I don't know what the protocol is on the Keeper taking over day-to-day
> >business, but I'm betting that it is not a situation that will last for
> >more than a couple of days.
> 
> It is not an ideal situation I'll grant you, but it may be enough to
> hold them together before they either go on a rescue mission or elect
> a new Amyrlin.
> 
> Another possibility is if all miracles over all miracles occurs and
> Lelaine and Romanda cooperates. They might have the influence enough
> to pull this off together.
> 
> >Either of the faction leaders winning...well, it's possible, I guess.
> 
> But only a slight possibility. I do believe Elaida will fall very
> soon, and the conflict solved with Egwene as Amyrlin.

Well, I'm in agreement with you on that.


[suspicion of BA]

> >> >
> >> >When the matter becomes too pressing to not address, how can the SAS
> >> >leadership be safe from suspicion? NO ONE can be safe from suspicion
> >> >unless they've been tested.
> >>
> >> It was the leadership as a whole I meant, not individuals.
> >> Sorry for not being clear enough.
> >
> >The leadership as a whole do not need to be BA, as I've argued before.
> >A few influential AS, some carefully plotted out actions - that's what
> >it could take to set things in motion, plus a few other influential BA
> >on the other side. The idea is not to discredit the leadership per se,
> >*but the idea of the rebellion itself*!
> >
> >If the idea gets hold that the rebellion was a BA plot to split the
> >Tower (hardly an outlandish idea), and the TAS was purged of BA...well,
> >that's all it takes, IMO.
> 
> I've mentioned before why I think this is less likely. The rebellion
> has the marks of something that was a sanctuary towards rebellion, and
> not a well planned BA plot of breaking the Tower in two.
> 
> And what do you mean by "carefully plotted out actions" ?

Well, why would someone need sanctuary in the first place? It's not the
first time Amyrlins have been deposed.
Yet, people died - Warders, possibly Aes Sedai. A lot of hostility
ensued.
What exactly happened? I'm not sure, but we know Alvi was in on what was
happening (and thus had the means to effect events to a great deal), we
know that she's the leader of the BA, and we know that the rebellion is
perceived as a grave threat to Tower power (which of course is what the
Shadow would want).


> 
> >After all, Siuan was deposed legally. Opportunistic Black Sisters would
> >then sieze the chance of splitting the Tower; with reason thought of as
> >the single-most damaging act that could happen to this bastion of power.
> 
> I can't, honestly say I understand the second part of the second
> sentence in that paragraph.

Bad sentencing. The splitting of the Tower is thought of as very
damaging to it, with good reason.

> 
> >If the SAS believes this, they will think of themselves as stooges for a
> >BA plot, whatever the quality of each camp's leadership.
> 
> See above.

I'd like it if you refer to what you are talking about with something
else than merely 'see above'. 
I assume you are referring to what you wrote regarding 'sanctuary', but
I'm hardly sure. 



> >Actually, you don't need a single BA in the SAS Hall for the rebellion
> >to take place, since there wouldn't *be* a SAS hall before it.
> >It might need Black sisters in the SAS Hall to *maintain* a rebellion,
> >possibly, but not to create it.
> 
> You would need strong BA influence for the rebellion to occur, if the
> splitting of the Tower is some BA plot, as you suggested some AS would
> be led to believe. Then it follows that  the SAS Hall should be
> infested with BA sisters to control the rebellion.
> 
> I don't think the BA has enough resources or influence to believably
> convince ordinary AS sisters that the rebellion is a BA plot, as they
> would have to plan this out before the rebellion happened.


Creating the need of 'sanctuary' was enough to set off a spark for the
rebellion. Neither Elaida nor Siuan wanted a rebellion in the first
place. Yet, this very thing happened.

Why did the Warders try to free Siuan? Why did the Younglings oppose
them? 

There are lots and lots of unanswered questions - once the BA bottle has
been uncorked, answers may well be revealed. I believe the BA were
central in making the rebellion happen - it suits their agenda
perfectly. Once Elaida had been established as non-BA, and the Tower had
been Purged, the pressure would be on the SAS 100%. 


> >That doesn't answer what I wrote above. As long Elaida sits in the
> >Amyrlin Seat, and the Purge went on under her direction, she'd do her
> >damnedest to leave the Tower unknowing about what had taken place under
> >her rule. Alviarin, as soon as she had spilled her guts, could simply
> >meet with an accident.
> 
> We are back to the credibility thing again. As mention earlier in this
> post, I don't buy it.
> 
> Your argument hinges on that Elaida will get it exactly as she wants,
> and that the Hall has no say in this. The Hall would certainly want it
> done as fast as possible.

I think it is simple - just handing over the info allows for the
resolution of the Purge problem, but it doesn't allow for the resolution
of the rebellion, which is a grave matter of it's own right. 

If they were smart about it, they'd allow info about BA in every Ajah
but the Blues and the Yellows leak into the SAS camp. That would allow
the SAS Greens, Whites, Grays and Browns to rid themselves of their BA,
but it would not help Lelaine and Romanda - both of which might be
suspected of being BA.
The SAS would disintegrate; the Purged Ajahs would want to reunite with
the Tower, and disassociate themselves from Romanda and Lelaine; and the
remainders (some or all of the Blues and the SAS Yellows) could be
contained without much problem, leaving the rest of the Purge a
relatively easy matter.
 


> >> They've had Tarmon Gaidon, and every problem from their pov, looming
> >> over their heads for two(?) years now, and even if AS on both sides
> >> agree that the Tower needs to be united and strong, there still was a
> >> rebellion.
> >
> >My point is that they're rebelling *despite* of these events, not
> >because of them. They are not points in favor of rebellion, rather the
> >contrary.
> 
> Yes, exactly. Elaidas crimes where bad enough, so despite what I wrote
> above, they rebelled. One third of the AS said: She is not fit to be
> Amyrlin. She must be removed.

What exact crimes is referred to here? 
The promotion of False Dragons? Or is it the violence that led to
seeking of sanctuary?

 
> When they are willing to go that far in a time of most serious crisis
> the Tower most likely have ever faced, it would take _damned_ much for
> them to go back to Elaida rule. A few mumblings of a BA plot would not
> be enough.

For me, it's simply connecting the dots. I don't see why you would
dismiss it as 'mumblings'.


---

KAH