Re: Tower situation

On Wed, 19 Nov 2003 18:33:56 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>
>
>Erik Steiro wrote:
>> 
>> On Mon, 17 Nov 2003 18:12:16 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> 
>> >
>> >
>> >Erik Steiro wrote:
>> >>
>> >> On Wed, 12 Nov 2003 20:18:52 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
>> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >Erik Steiro wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> On Mon, 10 Nov 2003 19:05:16 +0100, Kay-Arne Hansen
>> >> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> >Erik Steiro wrote:
>
>
>
>> <snip example on AS law>
>> 
>> >> There has been other cases.
>> >> For instance when remnant of those AS  who went out to capture Rand
>> >> came home. It was a low ranking AS who had to take responsibility even
>> >> if she had made no decision herself, only followed orders. She was
>> >> basically forced to take responsibility of someone else mistake.
>> >
>> >Who, that Red sister? I had not thought that she was going to take the
>> >fall for Galina's blundering. Where does it say that she has to?
>> 
>> ACoS Sealed to the flame pg485 Orbit hc:
>> 
>> Elaida just been told about Dumas weils when she tells Covarla this:
>> " 'You will leave the city as circumspectly as you entered, daughter,
>> and keep yourself and the others well hidden in one of the villages
>> beyond the bridge towns until I send for you. Dorlan would do nicley.'
>> ............. 'Go now and pray that someone above you does arrive
>> soon. The Hall will demand amends for this unparalleled catastrophe,
>> and at the moment, it seems you stand highest among those at fault.
>> Go!'"
>> 
>> Later.
>> 
>> Alviarin tells Elaida this:
>> " 'I think you are in great trouble, Elaida.' .... 'Sooner or later,
>> the Hall will learn of the disaster with al'Thor. Galina might have
>> satisfied the Hall, possibly, but I doubt Covarla will; they will want
>> someone...higher...to pay. And sooner or later, we will all learn
>> Toveine's fate. It will be difficult to keep this on your shoulders
>> then.' "
>> 
>> Alviarin then goes on about Elaida will be made as an example as
>> Elaida wanted Suian Sanche to be.
>> 
>> As you see, I misremebered a bit. Elaida threatens Covarla that she
>> will be held responsible, but as Alviarin points out. It's unlikely
>> the Hall will be satisfied with this offering, as Covarla is way to
>> low on the responsibility radar.
>> 
>> However, Elaidas comment is rather telling. It does imply that in
>> other cases in the past someone else than the leader has been held
>> responsible when things go wrong.
>
>I don't think Elaida's comment is that telling. It implies that Elaida
>wants this case hushed up, and uses a threat to make Covarla comply. 
>Even if Covarla could not be blamed, Elaida didn't technically lie in
>what she said to her.

It can be taken both ways. But neither Alviarin or Covarla herself
protest over Elaidas placing of guilt. Alviarin has of course her own
motivation for not doing so, and Covarla might still be in shock that
Duma's Weils gave her.
But still, Elaida could have sealed it to the flame, or whatever it's
called to keep Covarla from revealing the disaster. In addition to
send them away of course.

However there is no protest for the injustice in the first situation I
quoted. Except for one, but then only, as I see it, because Elayne is
referred to as child who cannot be held accountable as an adult would
be.

>> >> >
>> >> >*shrugs*
>> >> >
>> >> >I think being able to expose the BA would take precedence over any
>> >> >feelings of dismay at Alvi as Keeper. No one spoke up about Alviarin as
>> >> >Keeper either - what is *their* excuse?
>> >>
>> >> None in the Hall, is to our knowledge, blackmailed into doing things
>> >> she knows will cause mistrust among the Ajahs. She has basically
>> >> driven a wedge between the different Ajahs to the point where no AS
>> >> will walk in the Towers public areas alone.
>> >> She has set her own ass well being above that which is for the good of
>> >> the Tower. There are few sins that a AS can do which is worse.
>> >
>> >
>> >This presumes that Elaida being blackmailed would become common
>> >knowledge.
>> >As for what has _actually been done_ - well, that is no secret, and
>> >look, she got no punishment for it, either.
>> 
>> She has got no punishment, yet. Remember there has been discontentment
>> among individual AS, and whit in the different Ajahs. The BA hunters
>> have noticed that the Ajah heads are meeting in secrecy, and they
>> might plan for Elaidas downfall for this alone.
>> Well, if they are purging the BA, and tests Elaida, and finds out that
>> she is not BA. Then the natural next step would be her ex Keeper, who
>> is known to have more influence than Keepers normally have. What I
>> assume is that when Alviarin is captured she will bee thoroughly
>> questioned, and then Elaidas little secrets will be revealed.
>> 
>> It would be nice if the BA hunters gets Alviarin trough Talene, as I
>> think they will. After Alviarin is pumped for everything she knows,
>> they will want to replace Elaida as Amyrlin, and would then go to the
>> other Amyrlin, who is already in the Tower.
>
>
>I don't think it would be natural for the TAS to go to Egwene and elect
>her as Amyrlin. 

No, but then the excuse RJ used to make her Amyrlin for the SAS in the
first place wasn't that good either. I'm pretty sure RJ is heading in
that direction, so he probably will come up with something.

>Rather, they'd choose one among themselves, and ask the SAS to support
>their choice. Most like, with Elaida gone, and amnesty propositions sent
>out, the SAS would dump Egwene as fast as if she was a bag of refuse.
>
>After all, Egwene is still just an Accepted, in the eyes of the TAS.

No protest from me here. But at very least they should  invite the SAS
on the process so the Blue Ajah could help elect a legal Amyrlin in
addition to ease the reuniting. 

>> >> Another question is who is going to hold  the entire Hall responsible,
>> >> unless it is the Amyrlin who is about to fall anyway.
>> >> The only ones who could is the Ajah heads who in some cases is a
>> >> Sitter. They could see it as a political setback for their Ajah.
>> >>
>> >> Elaida has screwed up enough to for her to fall. Whether this is the
>> >> cause or excuse doesn't rely matter as long as she does.
>> >>
>> >> Or perhaps they are satisfied with one goat.
>> >> There is a lot of room for political maneuvering.
>> >
>> >Sure there is room for maneuvering.
>> >But 'masterminding' the BA Purge would IMO outweigh all other harm
>> >Elaida has done rooting out the number one cause for Tower misery is an
>> >unparallelled boon. If Elaida gets the credit for it, she should attain
>> >as solid a position as Amyrlin as she's ever had.
>> >
>> >Not that I think she'll live to see it.
>> 
>> If every Ajah, and their eyes and ears are incompetent so that the
>> rest of Elaidas misjudgments wont come out she might have had a
>> chance. The trouble is that the Ajahs do know, at least five of them.
>> From the same chapter I was quoting from above, only it four pages
>> later. Alviarin thinks to herself that five Ajahs had approached her
>> knowing of the fall of Colavares rise and fall, and even Alviarin
>> thinks she is finnished within a few weeks.
>> And the BA hunters know what has happened to Toveine's expedition to
>> wipe out the BT.
>> 
>
>That's just it, I think most of Elaida's incompetence has been brought
>to the attention of the Ajahs. 

I think it's to early to tell if Elaida will get away with it or not.
We know there is a lot of things going on behind the curtains, and one
of the things it would be natural for the Ajah heads to discuss
Elaidas leadership.
In fact there is enough activity that the  BA hunters notice.

>Yet, Elaida has not been brought down...indeed, they supported her
>choice of removing Alviarin, to replace her with a Red sister.

Alviarin gone missing what should they have done? 

You could even make a point that Alviarin had a lot of influence as a
Keeper, and by removing her they are attempting to weaken Elaidas
position.

>> >Well, the easiest way to administer the Purge would be for the SAS to
>> >surrender to the TAS, and subject themselves to the testing right away.
>> >This supercedes worries about who get's to decide what between Elaida
>> >and the Hall, IMO.
>> 
>> Easiest is not always the best, or even possible. The differences
>> between them is at this point so large that I find the chances of them
>> meekly returning to Elaidas reign.
>
>Without elected Amyrlin Egwene, the rebels are already in deep shit. 
>The worry of the BA in their ranks would only be the _coup de grace_,
>IMO. 

If Elaidas fall drags out, and Egwene is unable to either escape or
influence the BA hunters or Ajah heads whit in the Tower, then yes
they are in trouble.
But not necessary a lot. Many among the SAS believe Egwene as a mere
puppet for either Sheriam, Lelaine or Romanda. Two of these I think is
Blue, who would not return to Elaida no matter what.
As for the BA.
Well, they have lived with the Boogy(sp?) man in the closet for 2000
years, now they know for a fact that he is there.

>> >Have they openly acknowledged that the BA exists? My memory may be
>> >faulty here, but I didn't think any such formal statements have been put
>> >out by the SAS Hall.
>> 
>> They have acknowledged the fact whit in the Hall at least. Both Lelain
>> and Romanda has approached Egwene with Delana wanting them to declare
>> Elaida as a BA.
>
>IIRC, both Lelaine and Romanda declared Delana's proposal as
>crackbrained.
>
>Did _anyone_ beside Delana voice support of it? If not, I don't think
>you can call the idea 'acknowledged'.

Not that I remember. But there has been suggested to Travel into Tar
Valon to get the Oath Rod to test for BA among them. This was stopped
for the fear of any TAS learning how to Travel.

In addition Sheriham circle did buy Nynaeve's story about fighting the
BA and Moghedien.

It was also the wundergirls who told them that the Forsaken was loose,
and this we have clear proof that they did believe.
 
>> >> As long as Elaida keeps the conditions she has set for a reunion, I
>> >> doubt the SAS will agree.
>> >
>> >Even seeing their credibility be shattered? A body riddled with lice,
>> >and a body cleansed thoroughly of it - it seems an easy enough choice.
>> >Rumors could go out quickly - Siuan Sanche is Black, the Blue leadership
>> >is Black, the SAS Hall is Black, etc.
>> >Most of the other SAS might leave for the Tower right away, especially
>> >if Elaida softened the punishments just a little.
>> 
>> Neither the TAS or the SAS would want the existence of the BA to be
>> spread out to everyone and their dog. In fact if they reveal a success
>> full purge it will most likely be to the rivalling Hall only.
>> Revealing of the BA would shatter the White towers credibility, and
>> their influence in the world would greatly be reduced.
>
>
>They don't need to reveal it to everyone, just to the rebel AS. That
>knowledge would weigh heavy on any AS' mind, not knowing whether they're
>actually supporting a BA plot. IMO, most of the SAS would defect within
>days.

There is one thing to believe there are BA amongst you, but to believe
you are part of a BA plot where the entire Hall and Sheriams circle
are all in a BA plot is stretching things far to wide.

I can not point a finger that the SAS has done anything evil enough to
warrant such a thing.

The way Elaida deposited Suian however is fare more likely to strike
an ordinary AS as a BA plot. Which partly is the case.
 

>> The only ones to matter would be AS among the TAS.
>> But nothing has really changed for them. They know they have BA among
>> them, something they have had for 2000 years. The chances are that the
>> BA among the SAS upon knowing of the purge would flee instead of
>> remain.
>> 
>> Elaida has IIRC all but named Suian BA anyway, according to Min.
>> And that doesn't seem to have any negative influence over the SAS
>> credibility.
>
>
>Emphasize on 'all but'. Showing that there in fact *are* BA among them,
>and that the Tower has been purged, would be a powerful testimony
>indeed.

We do not know the wording of the posters that Elaida ordered put up
for the public to see. It could be this is Mins way of saying that the
accusations against Suian was severe.

This has only been mentioned once and that was several books ago.
It must be at least be over a year ago in Randland time, or so I think
since I long ago have lost the time line in the series, and then for
it to resurface and have such a huge in pact you are implying is to be
diplomatic less likely.
 
The posters where Elaidas demonizing of Suian to justify why a new
Amyrlin was necessary to the public, and nothing more.