recent insider transactions

      from www.CanAmInvestor.com

      Insiders Strong Warning Continues  on 10-20-2003 @ 09:21 AM
            By K. C. Grainger

            When Insiders have sold at these levels in the past, WATCH OUT!!
            I reviewed what transpired after officers and directors
(insiders) sold at these high levels since 1990. Within months, the market
would be down on average of 6%. For the entire year the market would drop an
average of 9%. The last time we saw such a high rate of selling was in 2000,
the S&P dropped 19% in the following six months!!!!!

            The managements and directors of the largest US publicly traded
companies (the most informed of all investors-they do work at these
companies)remain heavily to the sell side for the shares that they
personally own for the companies that they manage and direct. While this is
rarely a good short or medium timing indicator, it is helpful tool for
indicating where the market is at the time. Today, we might conclude that it
may not be the ninth inning, but it may be the "bottom of the eighth."
Extreme indications can be used for shorter-term timing, but that is indeed
rare.

            For example, in the fall of 1990, insiders were buyers of shares
in 87% to 90% of all transactions. That turned out to be the major low
before the Dow and S&P 500 began approximately four fold moves up for a
decade. Those 1990 insider buy percentages indicated that it was a major
bottom. We have yet to see those percentages again; and I have doubts as to
if we will until the market and of course specific stocks are well
undervalued.

            The most recent week reported can be construed as extremely
negative. Just take a look at the numbers. For the largest companies in the
US, insiders bought a meager total of 135,800 shares of their own companies'
common stocks. The US dollar value was a paltry $1,569,660. The same week
saw a total of 2,824,523 shares sold with a dollar value of
$91,084,043!!!!!!! ????? No, it is not massive dumping like we saw with the
internet managements three years ago but there is a lack of insiders buying.
To me, it indicates that the market upside is, at best, very moderate on a
percentage basis over the next several years. This negative has a positive
side though. In French, there is an old expression, "Quelque chose meilleur
est bon." It means that with some bad things, some good things may come as
well. I am thinking of the gold market that should thrive with a poor or
lackluster large cap stock market. As well, small cap stock could do quite
well also. Now our patience will be tested here. But, as Charles Dow said
106 years ago:"To be successful in the stock market, one must have the
patience of ten men." Few have that!

            The brokerage industry, for the most part, has not, does not and
will not report insider transactions on brokerage research reports unless
there exists insider buying. Telling the truth and stating all the facts can
interfere with business.

            We have been asked whether we find insiders buying any stocks at
all. We do! And insider ownership is just as important. We try to find
stocks where the success of the companies' stock prices is uppermost in the
minds of their managements. You know, where the price appreciation of the
stocks are more important than executive salaries, raises, options packages
and golden parachutes. If you can couple that with fundamental
undervaluation, there can be excellent opportunities for capital gains.