Re: Larry Pesavento - another CROOK - can't trade but "teaches"

Linda's stuff NEVER works??? NEVER??? Not even once???  I've adapated
and modified some of her stuff (actually, a lot of her stuff is pretty
commonly used by a lot of people).  Some of her stuff should be
disregarded out of hand if you're day trading.  No surprise there:
many methods that work in position and swing trading don't work in day
trading (why can't people get that through their heads?)

If you're looking for a completely mechanical "system", then be
prepared for large draw downs and mediocre win/losss rations.

Look, folks... here's a very simple concept:  trend following methods
don't work if the market isn't trending (and on an intra day basis, it
only trends about 1/3 of the time).  Most, if not all, *systems*--even
the better ones--entail draw downs that most of us  can't tolerate (at
least I can't, and most traders that I know of can't).

Here's another one:  the *context* of the market will determine
whether or not a certain pattern/indicator/signal is likely to work.
If you're trading MA crossovers in a market that is not trending, or
is flat and choppy, you'll get creamed.  If you try to use a
retracement method in either a choppy or runaway market, you'll never
get into a trade.  Patterns, indicators and methods don't work if they
are not in *context* with the market's current mode.

Why people insist on trading the market according to some statistical
or mathmatical model is beyond me.  The market is a composite of
thousands of opinions, fears, greeds, panics, hopes, foibles, etc.
Does anyone really think this can all be neatly fit into a model or
system?  Let me say this outright:  I know of NO trader who has lasted
in this business using a completely mechanical system....none.  And
I've been trading since 1974 (futures since 1994).  There may be some
out there, but I don't know of them.

One of the best (if not THE best) traders/teachers I know of uses a
very good methodology which encompasses entry points, protective
stops, initial exit points (he trades multiple contracts)...the whole
nine yards.  But even he will often not take a trade via his
methodology if the market context doesn't support it.  And when he
does, he's fully cognizant that it's a *counter* trend trade, and
keeps his stops and targets tight, accordingly.

Keep this thread going.... it's good stuff.

Dave



On 29 Nov 2003 03:54:48 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (consuming)
wrote:

>> Linda Raschke-Last I heard, she was running a couple of off-shore
>> funds... so she must be trading.  Also her live chat room gives real
>> time trades.  Whether she takes them or not, I don't know.  What's
>> important though, is if they "work".  Generally, they do more often
>> than not,  but certainly not to 100%.   While I don't necessarily
>> agree with all of her strategies or entry/exit points, I don't think
>> she's a charlatan.  I thought her writings in "Street Smarts" were
>> very good.
>
>The stuff in "Street Smarts" doesn't work.
>She NEVER, EVER gives "exits"
>Besides, tha's no way to trade. You can ONLY make consistent profits
>if (among other things) you trade mechanically AND have in place a
>comprenesive position sizing nad risk management method. He shows
>nothing on those areas. Most certainly she knows nothnig about that!
> 
>> Robert Miner - His course material is good, and has even been adapted
>> (read "stolen" ) by an advisor in TradingMarkets.com.  My biggest
>> issue with him is that he believes in time-cycles and I don't.  His
>> stuff on market action (pretty much Elliot stuff) is good though.  
>
>Same thing.