Re: HIV cases in UK jump nearly 20%

Well, Wolfgang is talking rubbish.  Genetic markers my arse.  Duesberg
neatly sidesteps the FACT that HIV infection of newborns is nearly always
lethal in 2 years unless they get antiviral meds (when they can happily
live into their teens and beyond - I've seen it).  SIV infection in
primates probably IS vertically as well as sexually transmitted, but then
SIV infection in the right species is harmless.  If you put the virus from
monkey X into monkey species Y then it'll cause AIDS.  It's not a great
leap of imagination to think the same happened between chimps and humans.
The concept of "the inappropriate host" is one that gets drummed into
virology undergrads and applies across the board (mumps, flu, EBV....).
HIV is just toeing the party line - in the wrong animal it's genes screw
things up.  HIV-1 is harmless in chimps, just like SIVcpz.

As for why the virus appeared at about the same time as we could look for
it: that doesn't explain why there was an explosion in cases of rare
immunosuppressive illnesses in normally healthy young men, nor why the
retrospective analysis of the epidemic puts the timeline back about 40
years before we had that technology!  Rather, the appearance of HIV
coincides with the infiltration of logging companies into the regions of
jungle that are home to the monkeys that carry the closest SIV strains to
HIV-1 and HIV-2!  The spread of AIDS went along the trucking routes coming
out of the logging areas.  The entry point to the US, or one major point
at least, was from an airline steward flying from Africa.  AIDS was first
described in 1981, HIV was discovered in 1983 and it wasn't even called
HIV (in recognition that it caused AIDS) until 1986!  Retrospective case
analysis and genetic mutation rates suggest the virus probably entered the
human species before 1940!  The timeline is completely backwards for that
assertation.

He's right though about HIV-1 and HIV-2 being different: HIV-1 and SIV may
have had a common ancester that infected the common ancestor of
chimps/humans, but more likely HIV-1 is a spin-off from a crossover
infection by SIVcpz.  HIV-2 is practically the same as SIVsmm from sooty
mangabeys, and that's been quietly known about for over a decade.  No
controversy there...and funnily enough no dissidents talk about that
either.

The weird figures have been known for some time - that while heterosexual
cases have risen dramatically in the UK, they are nearly all coming from
abroad or from contacts abroad (man goes on business trip/holiday, comes
back with a tan and HIV).  There is indeed an argument for testing
pre-entry to the UK, as I've personally seen cases where immigrants have
turned up and been treated free on the NHS for their CMV/PCP/TB/HIV.
It's difficult - do we go down the humane route of treating all who need
it, or the pragmatic route of only treating those who are citizens?  I'm
thankfully not in the position to make that decision.  We'd likely get
screwed by the European court of human rights for discrimination or some
such bollocks.

Furthermore, most of the cases are centred around London.  So, not only is
heterosexual contact between British citizens relatively low risk, it's
even lower outside big population centres like London, Glasgow and other
cities with disproportionately high rates of HIV.  That's not to justify
rampant unprotected sex amongst our little teenage darlings, but it does
at least explain why we have the highest teenage pregnancy rate in Europe
and yet aren't seeing a massive rise in home-grown HIV infection.

The question of how many of the home-infections are from overseas contacts
is a good one.  AFAIK the cases where that happens are classed as
"overseas contact", but I could be wrong.  It is, of course, dependant on
contact tracing and knowing who you could have got it from...


There are monthly reports as well as annual updates in the Communicable
Diseases Report for the UK (new website at http://www.hpa.org.uk/cdr/ )
They highlight the risk groups, changes, trends etc.

Hey, I've just found this.  A CDR rebuttal to the dissidents!

http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/hiv_and_sti/hiv/hiv_causes_aids.htm

It's short and sweet, but uses recent refs and adds to my oft-repeated
point that Uganda has thrown out some excellent work in the field, which
correlates I think with their relative success in dealing with the
epidemic.  More to add to the pot anyway.

Cheers

Bennett