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In the 1 Dec 2003 NY Times there was an article title "Why Americans Must Keep Spending; " http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/01/business/01econ.html The article describes how the depth of recent recession was moderated by growth in consumer spending during the recession, and how the recent economic recovery has been financed by even greater growth in consumer spending. The article also says that this economy saving growth in consumer spending has been financed *not* by increased earnings but instead by: (1) people taking on more debt, (2) and withdrawing equity from their homes by means of refinancings, and (3) tax cuts. The article asserts that consumers must keep up this spending growth for the economy to keep growing. Given that tax cuts are just another form of borrowing (since the budget is in deficit) this means that at present our economic health depends on ever increasing borrowing to finance consumer spending. What the article doesn't address is what the endgame is for this scenario. It seems obvious to me, though none of the experts are addressing it, that a nation cannot successfully depend on increasing consumer debt forever; at some point the minimum payments will be so high that the consumers can't borrow any more. Then the borrowing will level off, and that will cause consumer spending to level off and/or drop, and then the economy will go into a depression. Or am I missing something? Andy
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