A Turnaround, Russia Signals Support for Global Warning Treaty

Russia Signals Support for Global Warning Treaty (washingtonpost.com)

Government 'Moving Towards Ratification' of Kyoto Treaty Despite Top Aide's
Protest
By Peter Baker
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31935-2003Dec3.html

Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 4, 2003; 2:05 PM
MOSCOW, Dec. 3 -- The Russian government declared Wednesday that it is
"moving toward ratification" of the Kyoto treaty on global warming despite
opposition by a top aide to President Vladimir Putin, offering
environmentalists renewed hope of enacting the landmark pact.

The government's declaration signaled that Russia has not ruled out the
international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is still
staking out bargaining positions before deciding whether to join the accord.
It contradicted Putin's chief economics adviser, Andrei Illarionov, who
predicted Tuesday that Russia would not ratify it.
"There are no decisions about ratification of the Kyoto protocol except that
we are moving toward ratification," Mukhamed Tsikanov, deputy minister for
economic development and trade, told a hurriedly organized news conference
that was called to offset the impression left by the Putin adviser's
comments. Tsikanov added that "Russia will ratify the protocol if it is
proved that it is in our interest."
Russia has resisted ratifying the treaty while holding out for guarantees
that there would be economic benefits for Russia. Ever since the Bush
administration abandoned the Kyoto accord, Russia has essentially controlled
its fate because to go into effect the pact requires participation of
countries accounting for 55 percent of the world's emissions. Without
Russia, which produced 17 percent of those emissions in 1990, the treaty's
baseline year, the Kyoto accord would die.
Because of a historic quirk in timing, Russia stands to profit from the
treaty. The agreement sets the goal of reducing greenhouse emissions from
levels of 1990, when the Soviet Union's factories were pumping out
pollutants at far higher rates than the economically weaker Russian economy
is today.
As a result, Russia could sell its excess pollution quota to other countries
trying to meet Kyoto targets and it wants to cut deals with Japan, Canada or
European countries before ratifying it.
Putin's economic adviser, Illarionov, told reporters Tuesday that Russia
would not ratify it because it would restrict the country's growth.
Illarionov is known as an outspoken maverick within the Kremlin who often
takes his internal fights public and has long campaigned against Kyoto
without killing it. His statements on policy do not always reflect the final
positions taken by the Russian government.
Putin has offered conflicting statements on the Kyoto accord. Addressing a
Moscow conference on climate change in September, he said Russia "stands for
the quickest possible ratification" of Kyoto but then said there were still
"difficult and unclear problems." He joked that global warming might be good
for frigid Russia.
Supporters of the treaty still believe Putin will embrace the accord and
send it to parliament next year. "I am nearly convinced that Russia will
sign on," Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien told reporters in Ottawa on
Tuesday, according to news accounts. When he met Putin, Chretien said, "I
asked him and he said he had the intention of signing."

) 2003 The Washington Post Company